Southern Jaguars vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

No. 23 Illinois opened with two 20-point double-doubles in an 84-50 win, and Southern managed 39 points at Oklahoma State. Saturday at the State Farm Center, the Illini are favored by 34.5, and the question is whether a number that big survives a slow, defense-first underdog.

The Matchup

Southern's season started with a thud on Monday in Stillwater. The Jaguars lost 81-39 at Oklahoma State, shot 25 percent from the field, and got 10 points from Zaria Hurston as their only double-figure scorer. Deniya Thornton added 7 points and a team-high 8 rebounds. Hurston, Thornton, Alisha Nunley and Taniya Lawson carry no injury designations for Saturday.

Illinois opened with a far louder afternoon. The Illini, ranked No. 23, beat Detroit Mercy 84-50 on Wednesday behind Cearah Parchment, who scored 22 points with 11 rebounds, and Berry Wallace, who scored 21 with 11 more rebounds. Gretchen Dolan added 10 points, and Destiny Jackson handed out 9 assists. Illinois pulled down 53 rebounds as a team.

Last season is still the fuller picture for both teams, because each has played one game this season. Illinois finished 22-12 last season, scoring 76.5 points per game and allowing 66.1. Southern finished 20-14, scoring 61.2 and allowing 60.2, and the Jaguars built that record on defense.

One game into this season, Southern's defense just gave up 81 at Oklahoma State while its offense managed 39, and Illinois's two frontcourt players posted double-doubles in the same week. That is the whole tension of this game at the State Farm Center: a defense-first underdog against a ranked home team whose size already looks like a problem.

Key Factors

The number is the first thing to respect. Illinois is favored by 34.5, and the Illini beat Detroit Mercy by 34 on Wednesday with Parchment playing 27 minutes and Wallace 30. The Illinois rotation did not need a full night from its best players to build that margin, and a spread in the mid-30s asks the starters to keep building long after the game itself is decided. Illinois can win this game by 25 and play well doing it.

Southern's defense gives the points a chance. A team that allowed 60.2 points per game last season plays slow, physical half-court basketball, and every long possession is one Illinois does not get to run with. The total sits at 129.5, which tells the same story: this is priced as a game in the 80s for Illinois and the 40s for Southern, and margins are hard to stretch when the clock keeps moving.

The honest counterpoint is Southern's offense, because 39 points on 25 percent shooting is how underdogs get buried. If Hurston is the only Jaguar who can score again, Illinois's length will squeeze every possession, Parchment and Wallace will live on the offensive glass, and the margin can pass the number by halftime. Southern needs an ordinary shooting night, not a great one, and Monday in Stillwater was nowhere near ordinary. Take the points.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.