Southern Miss vs Louisiana Tech Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 11

Louisiana Tech is 7-2 and laying a huge number at Joe Aillet Stadium, but Southern Miss arrives in Ruston having won two of its last three and running the ball with real purpose. The question is not who is better, it is how wide the gap really is.

The Matchup

Nobody is confusing these two teams, but a spread this large asks Louisiana Tech to do more than win, it asks the Bulldogs to dominate, and Southern Miss has enough going for it to make domination hard. Steven Robinson is the heart of the Golden Eagles, with 782 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns this season, and a back who finishes drives changes the math for an underdog.

Southern Miss scores on the ground, with 19 rushing touchdowns as a team, so the Golden Eagles are not dependent on a passing game that has been shaky. John White threw for 266 yards in the most recent game, and Kaden Saunders gave him a big-play outlet, catching 6 passes for 122 yards.

The loss to James Madison was ugly at 54-23, but Southern Miss has also beaten Louisiana 35-31 and won 35-21 at UL Monroe in its recent run, and both showed a team that can score enough to stay in a fight. Louisiana Tech is better in almost every area, and Blake Baker is the steadiest quarterback in this game by a wide margin. Baker has thrown 14 touchdowns against a single interception this season, and he was efficient again in the last outing, 16 of 19 for 177 yards and a touchdown.

The Bulldogs score 33.6 points a game and allow just 20.4, which is a championship profile in this league. Jalen Mickens leads the receivers with 48 catches for 628 yards, and Marcus Calwise Jr. caught 9 passes for 137 yards and a score last time out. The Bulldogs should win. The fight here is over the margin, and margins shrink when the underdog can run, chew clock, and score in the red zone instead of settling for punts.

Key Factors

The favorite's case is formidable and it should be stated plainly. Louisiana Tech's defense has 25 sacks and 12 interceptions, the Bulldogs allow only 20.4 points a game, and Southern Miss converts third downs at a miserable 29.6 percent.

If Baker starts hot and the Bulldogs build a three-score lead early, the Golden Eagles cannot chase, because their passing game has thrown 9 interceptions this season and Louisiana Tech feasts on exactly that kind of desperation. That is what beats this pick - a fast start, a couple of short fields, and Southern Miss abandoning the run that is its only real weapon. Here is why the favorite's case falls short of covering a number this big, though.

Louisiana Tech runs the ball at just 3.8 yards a carry, so the Bulldogs are not built to grind out the clock and protect a huge lead late. Baker threw for only 177 yards in his last game because the Bulldogs did not need more, and a team that wins with efficiency rather than explosion can let an underdog linger. Louisiana Tech's last three wins came by margins of 26, 15, and 24 points, and two of those three would not cover this spread.

Landry Lyddy has thrown for 1,326 yards this season and Mario Sanders has 50 catches for 698 yards and 6 touchdowns, so Southern Miss has enough passing to answer a score or two and keep the back door open. Robinson grinding out first downs is the whole play. If the Golden Eagles are still within two scores in the fourth quarter, the Bulldogs have to keep scoring to cover, and that is a much harder job than simply winning.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.