Santos vs Atlante Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Liga MX Apertura

Atlante are sixteenth when Santos visit Mexico City on Friday night, but Santos defend away from home like a different and much worse team, and that split is the whole story of this match.

The Matchup

Atlante are sixteenth at 3-5-7, and a quick look at the table makes them easy to dismiss before Santos are examined properly. Atlante have scored 16 and conceded 24, and their last five matches include a 1-0 home win over Juárez and a 2-4 home loss to Guadalajara on November 1, with a 0-1 defeat at San Luis between them. The attacking load is shared in a way that suits a home underdog.

Jhojan Julio has 3 goals and 4 assists, the best combined return on the side, Luis Calzadilla has 3 goals, and Martin Sarrafiore has 3 goals on a team-high 37 shots. Goalkeeper Oscar Jimenez has made 50 saves, and Atlante's home games stay competitive because the back five in front of him protects the middle of the pitch first and worries about everything else later.

Santos are eighth at 7-1-7 and arrive in better form, with wins over San Luis, Querétaro and Pumas in their last five alongside a heavy loss at Tijuana and a 1-0 win at Necaxa on November 1. Tahiel Jimenez has 5 goals in just six matches, a scoring rate nobody else in this game can match, and Ezequiel Bullaude has 3 goals and 4 assists behind him.

Carlos Acevedo has made 62 saves in goal. Neither club has named its side yet. Atlante are expected to keep the back five from the Guadalajara match, with Julio expected to start up front, while Santos are expected to stay in the shape from the Necaxa win, with Jimenez expected to lead their line.

Key Factors

Santos defend like two different teams depending on where the game is played. At home they have conceded 0.38 goals per match, the tightest home record in this comparison by a distance. Away from home they have conceded 2.43 per match, and that is not a small-sample quirk a good side shrugs off, it is the reason a team with Santos's attack sits eighth instead of higher.

Atlante do not need to outplay Santos for ninety minutes. They need to do what visiting sides have done to Santos all season, stay in the game, take the chances a loose away defense offers, and let a big stadium and a back five do the rest.

The honest counterpoint is real, and it wears a Santos shirt. Tahiel Jimenez is scoring at a rate that can settle a game like this with one moment, Santos have won four of their last five, and Atlante lost here to Guadalajara last time out after conceding four.

If Santos score first and Atlante have to open up, the home side's own scoring record, a goal a game at home, says the chase is more likely to end in a second Santos goal than an equalizer. Atlante need the first goal, or a level game late enough that Santos's away nerves become the story.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.