Stanford vs Louisville Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Louisville scores 38.7 points per game, which makes the size of this number the whole story in Louisville. Stanford just played its best offensive game of the season against NC State, and the question is whether that offense travels well enough to keep the Cardinals from turning this into a runaway.

The Matchup

Stanford's offense finally looked whole against NC State, and the names from that 31-28 win all have to travel to Louisville. Davis Warren went 22 of 37 for 303 yards and 4 touchdowns with no interceptions, pushing Warren to 1,933 yards and 11 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions for the season. That ball security is Stanford's real chance here.

Micah Ford ran 22 times for 150 yards at 6.8 yards per carry in the same game, giving Warren room to throw without forcing the ball downfield on every snap. Caden High caught 9 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown against NC State, so Warren has a reliable target when a drive needs one clean conversion.

Louisville allows 27.4 points per game, not a shutdown number. Stanford does not need to match Louisville score for score. Stanford needs Warren to protect the ball the way he has all season and Ford to keep drives alive long enough to produce scores that make the favorite keep playing deep into the game.

Key Factors

Louisville's offense is explosive in a way Stanford rarely sees. The Cardinals average 10.1 yards per pass attempt and 5.9 yards per carry, with 25 rushing touchdowns and 215.0 rushing yards per game. Lincoln Kienholz threw for 310 yards on just 14 completions against Syracuse, averaging 11.9 yards per attempt, and Kienholz also ran for 2 touchdowns in that game.

Lawayne McCoy caught 5 passes for 93 yards against Syracuse and has 513 yards and 4 touchdowns this season, so Kienholz has more than one way to punish a defense that creeps toward the line. Stanford allows 35.5 points per game and has only 6 sacks all season, so Kienholz should have time, and that is what beats Stanford here if Louisville builds a lead early and forces Warren to throw into coverage.

The gap is real. The ask is narrower, though, because Ford has 679 yards and 8 touchdowns on 136 carries this season, and Stanford's recent wins over Elon and NC State came with Ford running well and Warren avoiding mistakes. Louisville has not played since October 17, and a 13-day layoff can dull early timing just enough to matter.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.