Stonehill Skyhawks vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

No. 13 Notre Dame scored 99 points in Rome behind 32 from Hannah Hidalgo, and Stonehill just shot 45 percent in a competitive loss at Providence. Friday night at Purcell Pavilion, the Irish are favored by 45.5 in their home opener, and the question is how long the starters need to care.

The Matchup

Stonehill's opener was a loss that said good things. The Skyhawks went to Providence and lost 79-65, but Brooke Paquette scored 21 points with 5 three-pointers, Reese Roggenburk added 11 points and 12 rebounds, and Megan Sias scored 11. Stonehill shot 45 percent as a team and was still in the game late against a Big East opponent on the road. Paquette, Roggenburk and Sias carry no injury designations for Friday.

Notre Dame's opener said louder things. The Irish, ranked No. 13, opened the season in Rome and beat Villanova 99-75, with Hannah Hidalgo scoring 32 points with 8 assists, Leah Macy adding 27 points and 14 rebounds, and Madison St. Rose scoring 17. Notre Dame shot 56 percent as a team.

Last season the Irish finished 25-11, scoring 77.1 points per game and allowing 65.1, while Stonehill finished 12-18, scoring 59.8 and allowing 64.9. The current evidence is louder anyway: Notre Dame just scored 99 against Villanova in Rome, and Stonehill opened with a loss at Providence. The gap between these programs is real, and Friday night at Purcell Pavilion is Notre Dame's home opener.

Key Factors

Stonehill can score, and that is where this pick starts. Underdogs covering numbers in the mid-40s usually do it by making shots, and the Skyhawks just made shots at Providence: 45 percent from the field, with Paquette's five three-pointers the kind of shooting that keeps a team inside a big spread even when everything else tilts the other way. Roggenburk's 12 rebounds matter too, because second chances are possessions Notre Dame does not get to run with.

The schedule spot helps Stonehill more than the talent does. Notre Dame's starters carried heavy minutes in Rome on Sunday, with Hidalgo playing 38 minutes, St. Rose 37 and Macy 34, and the Irish crossed an ocean to get home for this game. A home opener against an overmatched visitor is exactly the night a coaching staff spreads minutes around, and every minute the Irish bench plays is a minute the margin stops growing.

The counterpoint is Hidalgo, who is the best player in this game by a wide margin and just put up 32 points and 8 assists on Villanova. Macy's 27 points and 14 rebounds came against a frontcourt far better than Stonehill's. If Notre Dame's starters play their normal minutes with any edge at all, this margin can pass the number before the bench ever matters. That risk is real. It is also what a spread of 45.5 already charges for, and the number still asks for a full night of it. Take the points.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.