Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Villanova Wildcats Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

The women's season opens in Rome with No. 13 Notre Dame favored over Villanova in the Eternal City Tip-Off. Notre Dame brings back Hannah Hidalgo and a thin list of proven help around her, while Villanova returns the core of a 25-win team that defended as well as anyone in the Big East.

The Matchup

The women's season opens in Rome on Sunday, with No. 13 Notre Dame a 7.5-point favorite over Villanova at Palazzo dello Sport in the Eternal City Tip-Off, a total of 142.5 and Notre Dame at -425 on the moneyline. Both teams are 0-0, so last season is the starting point, and it says these two were closer than this spread suggests.

Notre Dame finished 25-11, scoring 77.1 points per game and allowing 65.1. Villanova finished 25-8, scoring 71.2 and allowing 61.2, the better defensive team of the two. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now, which is exactly why a season opener on a neutral floor in Italy is a strange place for a gap this wide to be priced as settled.

Villanova's core, though, is not new. Junior guard Jasmine Bascoe led the Big East in scoring and assists last season, averaging 18.9 points and 4.0 rebounds with 158 assists, and she was a unanimous All-Big East first-team pick.

Senior forward Brynn McCurry averaged 10.7 points and 5.3 rebounds and shot 52.9 percent from the field, and sophomore guard Kennedy Henry averaged 9.0 points with 72 steals. The Wildcats were picked second in the Big East preseason poll, and Henry joined Bascoe on the Preseason All-Big East Team. Bascoe, McCurry and Henry carry no injury designations for Sunday.

Notre Dame's returning picture is the opposite. Senior guard Hannah Hidalgo is back after a season that won her ACC Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year: 25.3 points, 6.9 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game, with 202 steals.

She is also the lone returning contributor from last season's rotation, with sophomore forward Leah Macy back after missing last season injured. Hidalgo carries no injury designation either. Notre Dame has the best player in this game and the thinner list of proven help around her, and that tension is the whole handicap.

Key Factors

Start with where Notre Dame's points live. Hidalgo scored 909 of the Irish's 2,774 points last season, about a third of the offense, and she created a large share of the rest with her 5.2 assists per game. A team built that way is brilliant when its star is rolling and fragile when she sits.

Two early fouls, a cold shooting night, or a defense that can stay in front of her without helping, and Notre Dame's scoring has no second proven source to turn to. Villanova's points are spread wider: Bascoe at 18.9, McCurry at 10.7, Henry at 9.0. No single whistle changes the Wildcats' offense the way one whistle changes Notre Dame's.

Villanova's defense is the second reason the points matter here. The Wildcats allowed 61.2 points per game last season, held opponents to 40.8 percent shooting, and scored 20.0 points per game off turnovers. In a game where the underdog defends like that, the favorite has to keep scoring for forty minutes to build a margin, because the easy runs are scarce. The total of 142.5 expects a reasonably open game; Villanova's profile says the Wildcats will try to make it a grind, and grinds shrink spreads.

The honest counterpoint is Hidalgo herself, on defense. She averaged 5.6 steals per game last season and set the NCAA single-season record with 202 of them, and Villanova turned the ball over 13.5 times per game. If Hidalgo turns Bascoe's possessions into a fight and Notre Dame scores off live-ball turnovers early, the Irish can build the double-digit lead this spread needs before Villanova settles.

Foul trouble cuts the other way too: if Bascoe picks up two early fouls, Villanova loses its organizer. But Notre Dame is being asked to win by eight or more, overseas, in an opener, with one proven scorer, against a team that brings back its top three scorers. That is a lot of things that have to go right at once.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.