Tarleton State Texans vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2
No. 6 Texas is 3-0 at the Moody Center and laying 47.5 against a 2-1 Tarleton State team whose leading scorer averages 9.7 points a game. The winner is not the argument. The margin is.
The Matchup
Texas has spent the first two weeks turning the Moody Center into a mismatch. The Longhorns are 3-0, beating Fairleigh Dickinson 85-65, Northern Colorado 91-29 and South Dakota State 93-63, and they score 89.7 points per game while allowing 52.3 this season. Madison Booker leads Texas at 21.0 points and 4.3 assists per game, and Breya Cunningham pulls down 8.3 rebounds a night. Booker and Cunningham carry no injury designations for Saturday.
Tarleton State arrives at 2-1 with a much thinner scoring profile. The Texans beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 66-47 and Sul Ross State 64-44, and their one trip to a ranked floor ended in an 89-42 loss at TCU. Caroline Lyles leads Tarleton at just 9.7 points per game, Stephany Gonçalves deals 5.3 assists a night, and Olivia Medford leads the team at 7.3 rebounds per game. Lyles, Gonçalves and Medford carry no injury designations for Saturday.
Three games is a thin file, so last season still carries real weight in the numbers here. Last season Texas went 35-4, scoring 83.9 points per game and allowing 55.8, while Tarleton went 14-17 in the United Athletic Conference, scoring 64.8 and allowing 65.2. What this season has already shown is a Texas team winning its three home games by 20, 62 and 30, with Booker running the show.
Put the two seasons together and Texas scores 86.8 points per game and allows 54.1, against Tarleton at 61.1 scored and 62.6 allowed. DraftKings makes Texas a 47.5-point favorite at the Moody Center, with a total of 131.5 and no moneyline offered.
Key Factors
The first factor is the size of the ask itself. Texas is winning its games by 37.3 points a night this season, a dominant margin that still sits ten points short of this spread. To cover 47.5, the Longhorns need their best margin of the season against a team that has already seen a ranked opponent's speed this month.
Rotation is the second factor. Games like this are decided early, and decided games empty benches. Texas has no reason to chase a margin in the fourth quarter with a trip to Green Bay coming next, and every minute the Longhorn reserves play is a minute the scoring slows. Tarleton only needs to win the ordinary possessions, hit a few shots through Lyles and Gonçalves, and let the clock work.
The counterpoint is real, and it wears a TCU uniform. Tarleton lost by 47 at TCU on November 8, proof that a ranked defense can bury this team past a number like this one. Texas defends at that level, allowing 52.3 points per game, and if the Longhorns press Tarleton's guards into live-ball turnovers for a full half, the margin can run. The case for the points is that Texas has not actually done it yet this season: three home games, three comfortable wins, and not one margin that reaches this spread.
Texas is the better team by a mile and should win this game going away. But the Longhorns have won three home games without reaching this margin once, Tarleton has already played a ranked team on the road this month, and a spread this large asks the favorite to keep its foot down long after the game is decided. Take the points with Tarleton State Texans +47.5 at -105.
Game Information
| Date | Saturday (11/14) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 12:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | SECN+ |
| Venue | Moody Center, Austin |
| Spread | Texas Longhorns -47.5 |
| Total | 131.5 |
| Moneyline | OFF |
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