Temple vs East Carolina Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Temple arrives in Greenville rested and built around a ground game that averages 202.1 yards per game. East Carolina scores at a similar pace but wastes possessions, and that waste is the opening Temple needs on the road.

The Matchup

Ajani Sheppard is coming off the kind of game that travels well. Against Charlotte, Sheppard completed 15 of 23 passes for 236 yards and a touchdown, and Sheppard also ran 7 times for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 38-31 loss. Peter Clarke caught 5 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown in that game, giving Temple a downfield option when defenses crowd the run.

Sheppard has thrown for 1,127 yards and 8 touchdowns this season, and Temple quarterbacks have thrown only 1 interception all season. That care matters because Temple does not need to chase style points. Temple averages 25.7 points per game and 5.4 yards per carry, and Temple converts 41.7 percent on third down.

East Carolina averages 25.0 points per game but converts only 31.3 percent on third down, so the Pirates have to work harder to finish drives. TJ Engleman Jr. gives East Carolina a steady answer on the ground, and when Engleman gets going the home offense looks far less frantic. Temple has had time to heal and prepare, and Sheppard's legs give Temple a way to answer pressure without forcing throws into coverage.

Key Factors

Ball security separates these teams more than scoring does. Temple has 6 giveaways this season. East Carolina has 13 giveaways, and East Carolina quarterbacks have thrown 6 interceptions. In a game between offenses that live in the same scoring range, an extra possession is often the margin, and Temple is far more likely to receive that gift than to give it away.

Rest points the same way. Temple has had 13 days since its last game, while East Carolina played on October 22, and a rested Sheppard is harder to rush into mistakes. East Carolina allows 26.3 points per game, and Engleman has 582 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns this season, so the Pirates can answer when they stay on schedule. The counterpoint is pressure.

East Carolina has 19 sacks against only 9 for Temple, and pressure is the best way to make Sheppard play faster than he wants to play. Sheppard also added 10.0 yards per carry on the ground last game, which helps, but Temple lost to Charlotte and UConn in its last two home games before the break. The rest has to become sharper execution, not just fresh legs.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.