Texas A&M vs Alabama Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 8

AP No. 13 Alabama lays 14.5 at home against a Texas A&M defense allowing just 17.1 points per game. The Crimson Tide score 39.3 per game behind quarterback Keelon Russell.

01The Matchup

AP No. 13 Alabama in the AP Top 25 is 5-2 and scoring like Alabama again: 39.3 points per game, 252.7 passing yards per game at 9.0 yards per attempt, and 19 rushing touchdowns. Quarterback Keelon Russell, who led the Crimson Tide's passing in the rout of The Citadel, completes 67.3% of his throws and pilots an offense that can bury a game in one quarter.

Texas A&M is 4-3 and brings the kind of defense that makes favorites work for it: the Aggies allow 17.1 points per game and have kept every opponent in range, even as their own offense, led by quarterback Marcel Reed, manages 29.4 points per game on a shaky 55.9% completion rate and 6.2 yards per attempt. The spread says Alabama by more than two touchdowns at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Aggies' season says nobody beats them by more than two touchdowns easily. Both things have been true all year, which is what makes this line worth a close look.

02Key Factors

First, Alabama's passing efficiency against A&M's coverage. The Tide average 9.0 yards per attempt, the Aggies have only 5 interceptions and just 5 sacks all season, so Russell should operate in comfort, and a comfortable Russell is how Alabama gets to 39 points. Second, A&M's offense is the underdog's problem and its protection: Reed completes 55.9% at 6.2 yards per attempt, which means the Aggies cannot chase a game through the air, but they also rarely face the kind of desperation that produces blowouts, because their defense keeps the score close enough for the ground game to matter.

Third, Alabama's own looseness keeps doors open: 11 giveaways for a two-touchdown home favorite is a lot, and the Tide's defense, allowing 21.4 points per game, has not been the shutdown unit of past years. A&M needs its defense to hold Alabama in the high 20s, a number the Aggies have defended all season.

03The Pick

Take Texas A&M +14.5. Our numbers project Alabama by 6, with a projected score of Alabama 28, Texas A&M 22, so this is a play on a defense that allows 17.1 points per game catching more than two touchdowns. Alabama is the better team, Russell is the better quarterback, and Bryant-Denny is a hard place to survive, let alone thrive.

But the Aggies' whole season is evidence they do not get blown out: their defense keeps games in a range where 14.5 is a mountain, and Alabama's 11 giveaways plus a merely good defense give A&M the short fields and extra possessions it needs. The Tide win and stay in the SEC race; the Aggies cover with room to spare.

Interested in more college football picks? Read our thoughts on who covers in Ole Miss vs Texas.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.