Troy Trojans vs Florida State Seminoles Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1
Florida State scored 113 in its opener with six players in double figures. Troy scored 60 at home. Friday in Tallahassee is a meeting of two offenses going opposite directions.
The Matchup
Troy visits Florida State on Friday night at the Tucker Center in Tallahassee, on ACCNX, with Florida State a 20.5-point favorite and a total of 157.5. One team in this game spent opening week overwhelming people. The other spent it stuck in the mud.
Florida State is 1-0 after beating Florida A&M 113-69 in Tampa. Troy is 0-1 after losing 71-60 at home to Massachusetts.
Last season still frames the season picture: Florida State went 18-15 last season, scoring 80.4 points a game and allowing 77.9, while Troy went 22-12, scoring 79.3 and allowing 73.2. Troy's program is genuinely good - 22 wins and a defense that travels - but its opener was the worst version of itself, and this is its first road game of the season, after opening at home on Monday and now traveling to Tallahassee on Friday.
Florida State's size and pace are the problem Troy has to solve. The Seminoles want this game played in the 80s and 90s. Troy's only path is to drag it into the 60s.
Key Factors
Florida State's balance makes it exhausting to guard. Sebastian Rancik scored 25 points on 8-of-12 shooting in the opener, Anthony Robinson II added 16 points with 8 rebounds, and Marcis Ponder put up 15 points and 11 rebounds inside. Kam Taylor scored 15 and Brandon Bass Jr. added 13 off the bench. Six players in double figures means Troy cannot scheme its way to stopping one man, and the Seminoles kept scoring in waves for 40 minutes.
Troy's offense is the other half of the story. The Trojans managed 60 points at home against Massachusetts, and almost all of it came from one place: Donovan Oday scored 21 points with 12 rebounds and 6 steals, a huge individual night, and Troy still lost by 11. Jacoi Hutchinson added 10 points and 5 assists, but nobody else reached double figures. Against a longer, deeper home team, one-man offense is how a 20-point spread gets covered.
The honest counterpoint is Troy's track record. This program won 22 games last season and allowed 73.2 points a game doing it, and proud defensive teams usually answer a bad opener with a proud one. If Troy slows the game to a walk, keeps Florida State out of transition, and turns Friday into a 68-possession grind, the Seminoles can win comfortably and still never see a 21-point lead. The pick needs Florida State's pace to win the argument early.
Florida State just scored in bunches with everybody involved, and Troy's offense never got going at home in its opener. The Seminoles have too much size, too much depth, and too many scorers for a visiting team still looking for its first good half. Lay the points with Florida State Seminoles -20.5 at -112.
Game Information
| Date | Friday (11/6) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 6:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | ACCNX |
| Venue | Tucker Center, Tallahassee |
| Spread | Florida State Seminoles -20.5 |
| Total | 157.5 |
| Moneyline | Florida State Seminoles -4,000 |
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