Troy vs South Alabama Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 11

Two 4-5 teams meet at Hancock Whitney Stadium with losing streaks and questions at quarterback shadowing both sidelines. South Alabama scores more and runs better, but Troy has made a habit of dragging better offenses into ugly, close games.

The Matchup

This is a game between two teams that keep finding ways to lose close ones, and the tiebreaker is that South Alabama simply has more ways to score. The Jaguars average 32.4 points a game, a full ten points better than Troy, and they do it with balance that the Trojans cannot match. South Alabama runs for 207.1 yards a game, and Keenan Phillips has 595 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns this season, which gives the Jaguars a foundation Troy has to respect.

Brendan Jenkins stretches the field off that ground game, with 33 catches for 552 yards, and he caught 6 passes for 101 yards in the most recent game. Bishop Davenport ran that offense in the most recent outing and added real value with his legs, carrying 11 times for 57 yards and 2 touchdowns while throwing for 210 yards. A quarterback who can run like that stresses a defense in ways Troy's offense simply cannot answer in kind.

The Trojans score just 22.3 points a game and throw for only 181.0 yards a contest. Goose Crowder has 9 touchdowns against 5 interceptions this season, and Tucker Kilcrease threw for 215 yards without a touchdown in the most recent game. Troy runs the ball respectably at 177.6 yards a game, but without a passing threat to fear, defenses crowd the line and dare the Trojans to beat them deep.

TK Keyes has 319 receiving yards on just 14 catches, so the big play exists, it just does not show up often enough. South Alabama has lost three straight, all by one score or a little more. The Jaguars are due to finish one of these, and they have the better tools to do it at home.

Key Factors

South Alabama's defense is the reason this pick carries real risk, and there is no point pretending otherwise. The Jaguars allow 32.2 points a game, nearly as many as they score, and a defense that leaky keeps underdogs in games they have no business winning late.

Troy's defense is the steadier unit, allowing 26.2 points a game with 16 takeaways this season, and the Trojans already won at James Madison 24-21, proof they can steal a road game when the home team gets sloppy. That is what beats this pick - Troy turning this into a low, grinding game, Jordan Lovett and the ground attack shortening the afternoon, and South Alabama's defense giving back every lead the offense builds.

The Jaguars have also been careless in big spots, and Troy's 7 interceptions this season show a secondary that punishes mistakes. Still, the scoring gap between these teams is too wide to ignore. Troy has been held to 14, 24, and 17 points in its last three games, and an offense that quiet has to play nearly perfectly to win on the road.

South Alabama put up points even in defeat, scoring 26 at Louisiana, and the Jaguars' rushing attack at 4.7 yards a carry is the most reliable single unit in this game. Davenport's running adds a layer Troy cannot scheme away without opening up Jenkins downfield. The Jaguars need one clean fourth quarter, something they have failed to produce for three weeks. Against an offense this limited, one clean quarter should finally be enough.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.