Tulsa vs Tulane Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 10
Tulsa brings the more productive offense in this corner of the American to New Orleans, where Tulane just changed quarterbacks and won anyway. Both teams are 4-4 and the line is a point and a half, and the difference underneath the records is that one of these offenses has been producing all season while the other is still searching for its passing game in November.
The Matchup
Tulsa's offense is the established thing in this game. The Golden Hurricane score 29.8 points per game behind Baylor Hayes, who has thrown for 1,343 yards with 10 touchdowns, and the pieces around him produce: Damari Alston has 429 rushing yards to keep defenses honest, and Oran Singleton Jr. has 535 receiving yards as the receiver secondaries have to find on every snap.
It is not a spectacular offense, but it is a settled one, and settled offenses travel. Tulane's has been anything but. The Green Wave score 22.5 points per game, and their passing situation tells the story of the season: Kadin Semonza remains the team's passing leader with just 804 yards, yet it was Trace Johnson who started the most recent game, at Charlotte on October 30, and Johnson played well, going 28 of 36 for 284 yards in a 38-31 win.
That win deserves a footnote, though. Charlotte allows 40.2 points per game, one of the weakest defenses in the country, and Tulane's ground game, led by Johnnie Daniels at 493 rushing yards, did much of the work. Against a defense that gives up points to everyone, the Green Wave still needed 38 to survive.
Key Factors
The quarterback question is the game. If Johnson starts again and plays the way he did at Charlotte, Tulane's ceiling is higher than its season numbers suggest, and Yulman Stadium on a Saturday gives the Green Wave a real home edge. Tulane also played on Friday, so the extra day of preparation sits with the home team, and that is worth something in a game lined this tight. But a season is longer than one Friday night against a bad defense.
Tulane has scored 22.5 points per game across eight games with a passing attack that has never settled, whoever has been under center, while Tulsa's production has been steady with Hayes running the same offense all year. The honest counterpoint is Johnson himself: young quarterbacks sometimes do break through in a single night and stay broken through, and if that is what happened at Charlotte, this pick is in trouble by halftime.
Daniels running into a loaded box is also a plausible Tulane script if Tulsa's front cannot hold up. We will side with the eight-game body of work over the one-game audition. In a game this close, the team with the proven offense is the one that should be laying the point and a half, and instead it is getting it.
Tulsa has the settled quarterback and the more productive offense in a game lined at a point and a half, while Tulane is asking a recently changed passing game to keep pace for four quarters. Getting points with the better offense is the right side of a coin flip. Take Tulsa +1.5 at -110.
Game Information
| Date | Saturday (11/7) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 12:00 PM ET |
| How to Watch | ESPNU |
| Venue | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans |
| Spread | Tulane -1.5 |
| Total | 49.5 |
| Moneyline | Tulane -108 |
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