Texas vs Missouri Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 10

No. 10 in the AP Top 25 Texas visits No. 19 Missouri at Memorial Stadium, where the Tigers have built a 6-2 season on defense and the SEC's most underappreciated rushing attack. Arch Manning meets a Columbia crowd that just watched its team dismantle Texas A&M.

The Matchup

Missouri's identity starts with Jamal Roberts, and it is about time the sport noticed. Roberts has rushed for 1,005 yards, the engine of an offense that scores 31.5 points per game, and he lets Austin Simmons operate with the cleanest looks a quarterback gets. Simmons has thrown for 1,952 yards with Cayden Lee catching for 756, so the Tigers are balanced in the way that travels and holds up in November.

Their defense allows 18.4 points per game, and the recent evidence is loud: Missouri beat Texas A&M 27-6 and Arkansas 34-10, with a 31-3 loss at Ole Miss as the one afternoon the whole operation cracked. Texas brings the bigger names. Arch Manning has thrown for 1,727 yards, Ryan Wingo has 470 receiving yards, and Raleek Brown leads the run game with 452 yards.

The Longhorns score 30.8 points per game and allow 17.1, the best defensive number in this game. But Texas just lost 27-24 at Florida and survived Ole Miss 34-27, and its road performances have been noticeably shakier than its home ones. Faurot Field against a defense playing this well is the wrong place to be shaky.

Key Factors

The rushing contrast shapes everything. Roberts gives Missouri the ability to shorten the game and keep Manning watching, and a shortened game at home is exactly what an underdog with a strong defense wants. Texas needs Manning to be the best player on the field, and he has been that in stretches, but the Longhorns' run game behind Brown has not consistently taken pressure off him, which lets Missouri's defense defend the pass first.

The honest counterpoint is Texas's defensive front. Allowing 17.1 points per game is the best mark here, and if the Longhorns bottle Roberts early, Simmons has to win throwing into a secondary that has handled most of what it has seen. Texas also has the higher ceiling, and a Manning masterpiece can break any script.

But Missouri's home form is not a mirage: the Tigers have won their last two home games by a combined margin that reflects a team peaking in November, their quarterback protects the operation, and their running back is the most reliable offensive player in the game. Getting a full field goal at home with that profile, in a game the total prices as a grind, is the side that matches how both teams actually play.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.