UAB vs South Florida Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9
UAB is 4-3 and well rested, and South Florida is 5-2 at Raymond James Stadium behind a defense that makes every drive feel long. Both teams arrive fresh, and the difference is a South Florida side that simply refuses to beat itself.
The Matchup
South Florida wins games by refusing to beat itself, and the habit starts at quarterback. South Florida quarterbacks have thrown 0 interceptions this season, a remarkable clean sheet for a team that plays at this tempo. Michael Van Buren Jr. has thrown for 1,266 yards and 6 touchdowns, and Van Buren went 22 of 27 for 193 yards and 1 touchdown in the most recent game. D.J.
Crowther has rushed for 518 yards and 7 touchdowns, and Crowther carried 11 times for 42 yards in that game, doing the unglamorous work between the tackles. Cameron Seldon caught 4 passes for 60 yards and 1 touchdown in that game. South Florida averages 26.6 points per game with 15 rushing touchdowns, an offense built on patience rather than fireworks. UAB brings a capable passing counter.
Ryder Burton has thrown for 1,184 yards with 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and Burton went 19 of 37 for 262 yards and 2 touchdowns in the most recent game. CJ Smith caught 8 passes for 119 yards in that game, and Smith has 350 receiving yards this season. Rod Robinson II carried 8 times for 33 yards in that game and has 436 rushing yards this season. UAB averages 23.3 points per game, so the Blazers need Burton and Smith sharp early.
Key Factors
South Florida's defense turns a modest offense into a covering favorite. The Bulls allow 15.1 points per game with a plus 11.5 net scoring margin, while UAB allows 24.6 points per game with a minus 1.3 margin. UAB has 10 giveaways this season compared with 4 for South Florida, so Burton has to repeat his clean recent form against a defense that held Kent State to a 29-2 scoreline.
Rest does not separate them. UAB last played on October 15, giving the Blazers 15 days before October 31, and South Florida last played on October 17 for 13 days, so both teams arrive fresh and the talent and turnover gaps decide this one. The counterpoint is Burton to Smith at volume.
UAB throws for 171.0 yards per game on the season, well below what Burton produced last time out, and if Smith takes over a quarter the way he can, South Florida's offense at 183.9 passing yards per game may not pull away. The Bulls ground game stalled in the most recent game, and a repeat keeps UAB hanging around into the fourth quarter. Still, a home team this stingy that protects the ball this well is built to win by more than a touchdown.
Editorial pick. UAB has to play a patient, near-perfect road game against a defense that gives away very little at home, and Burton's best stretches still leave the Blazers chasing field position. South Florida does not need a shootout to separate in Tampa. Take South Florida -7.5.
Game information
| DATE | Saturday (10/31) |
|---|---|
| START TIME | 12:00 PM ET |
| HOW TO WATCH | ESPNU |
| VENUE | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa |
| SPREAD | South Florida -7.5 |
| TOTAL | 42.5 |
| MONEYLINE | South Florida -305 |
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Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.