UMBC Retrievers vs Marist Red Foxes Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Both teams lost their openers, but in different ways: Marist went cold in stretches at home, and UMBC shot its way out of the game at George Mason. Somebody gets a first win at McCann Arena.

The Matchup

UMBC visits Marist on Thursday night at McCann Arena in Poughkeepsie, with Marist a 3.5-point favorite, a total of 141.5, on ESPN+. Both teams are 0-1, both lost games they will want back, and the difference between them is where the loss happened and what caused it.

Last season UMBC finished 24-9, scoring 76.4 points a game and allowing 67.6. Marist finished 19-12, scoring 69.7 and allowing 63.8. Last season says UMBC was the better team and Marist was the better defense. The openers said something narrower: Marist lost 69-62 at home to Dartmouth, and UMBC lost 82-54 at George Mason, scoring 54 points on the road in its opener.

Key Factors

Marist's case starts at the free-throw line and on defense. Jadin Collins-Roberts scored 13 points against Dartmouth and made 11 of 12 free throws, because he kept driving into contact. Myles Parker added 13 points on 3-of-5 three-point shooting with 5 rebounds, the kind of efficient night Marist's half-court offense needs. The Red Foxes allowed 63.8 points a game last season, and a team that defends at home and manufactures points at the line has a floor that travels from game to game.

Collins-Roberts also shows the risk in the same box score: he shot 1-of-9 from the field and committed 7 turnovers. Marist's pick needs its point guard to keep the pressure and cut the giveaways. UMBC's problem at George Mason was cruder. Aidan Able led the Retrievers with 13 points, but Flash Burton needed 17 shots to score 11 and Devin Ceaser needed 18 shots to score 11. Volume shooting without efficiency is how a road team scores 54, and UMBC now has to fix it in another road gym.

The counterpoint is last season's gap, and it is wide. UMBC won 24 games and outscored its opponents by nearly nine points a night; Marist just lost at home to Dartmouth.

If the Retrievers' shooters find their normal level, Marist's offense, which scored 62 in its opener, may not have the firepower to answer, and the small home number will look generous to the wrong side. The bet is on the defense that is already in place, the home floor, and a visiting team playing its second straight road game after a 54-point night.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.