Valparaiso Beacons vs South Dakota State Jackrabbits Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

Valparaiso is a road favorite in Brookings behind Rakim Chaney, who leads the Beacons in scoring, assists, and rebounding. South Dakota State is unbeaten behind a defense allowing 57.5 points a game and Davis Kern at 17.0 a night.

The Matchup

Valparaiso visits South Dakota State on Wednesday evening at First Bank & Trust Arena in Brookings, on Summit League Network, with Valparaiso a 2.5-point road favorite, a total of 142.5, and the Beacons priced at -142 on the moneyline against South Dakota State at +120. Both teams are unbeaten, and a road favorite in Brookings has to be clearly better to earn that price. Through two games, the home team has been the one defending like it.

Valparaiso is 2-0 in the Missouri Valley Conference, scoring 81.5 points a game and allowing 69.0 in the 2026-27 season, and its profile comes with one name attached to everything: Rakim Chaney leads the Beacons at 22.5 points, 3.5 assists, and 5.5 rebounds a game, the scoring leader, the assists leader, and the rebounds leader on the same roster. South Dakota State is 2-0 in the Summit League, scoring 69.5 points a game and allowing just 57.5, the strongest defensive number in this matchup. Davis Kern leads the Jackrabbits at 17.0 points a game, Trey Buchanan leads them at 3.0 assists a game, and Kalen Garry leads them at 6.0 rebounds a game, a home team that spreads its work around instead of handing it all to one player.

Valparaiso's start leans on Chaney in a way its own last season says is new: the Beacons went 18-15 in 2025-26, scored 72.0 points a game, and allowed 71.5, a near-even team that won close games rather than overwhelming anyone, so an offense jumping to 81.5 a night lives and dies with whether one guard keeps carrying every category. South Dakota State went 14-18 last season, scored 75.4, and allowed 72.8, and its flip is at the other end: a losing team that defended loosely has opened this season allowing 57.5 a game, with Kern giving it a scorer its defense never had to protect before.

Key Factors

Chaney against a defense allowing 57.5 points a game is the matchup inside the matchup. South Dakota State does not have to stop the best player in this game completely; it has to make him work alone, because Valparaiso has no second leader in any category to punish a defense that loads up on one man. Garry at 6.0 rebounds a game edges even Chaney's 5.5, so the Jackrabbits should finish the possessions their defense starts, which is how a home underdog turns stops into control of the game.

Kern gives South Dakota State the scorer its defensive identity needs. At 17.0 points a game he is not Chaney, but the Jackrabbits do not need him to be: a team allowing 57.5 a night wins by keeping the game in the sixties and taking its points where they come. Valparaiso scores 81.5 a game and wants this game played in the open floor; every slow, physical possession in Brookings moves the night toward the home team.

The honest counterpoint is that the best player on the floor wears the road uniform. Chaney leads his team in everything because he is good enough to, and if he produces a huge night while South Dakota State's offense stalls at its usual 69.5 a game, Valparaiso's scoring travels, the Beacons win this game outright, and the points never matter. The Jackrabbits have also built their defensive start in two games, and a Missouri Valley visitor is a step up from that opening slate.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.