Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 10

Mississippi State has scored 18 total points in its last three games, all losses, and Vanderbilt has lost four straight. Somebody's November gets saved in Starkville. The home team's drought came against LSU, Oklahoma and Texas. Vanderbilt's defense, allowing 30.2 a game, is not those defenses.

The Matchup

Mississippi State's last three games are a horror film with an explanation: losses to LSU (31-0), Oklahoma (23-15) and Texas (31-3), three of the best defenses in the conference in a row. Zoom out and the offense is functional - Kamario Taylor has thrown for 1,460 yards with 17 touchdowns, Fluff Bothwell has rushed for 563 yards, and Anthony Evans III has 666 receiving yards for a team scoring 26.6 points per game.

Vanderbilt's defense allows 30.2 points per game, the weakest unit in this matchup, and the Commodores have lost four straight, most recently 34-17 at Kentucky on October 24. Vanderbilt's offense has its own weapon: Junior Sherrill has 706 receiving yards, Jared Curtis has thrown for 1,489 yards with 8 touchdowns, and Sedrick Alexander adds 274 rushing yards. But the Commodores score 22.8 points per game, and Mississippi State's defense, allowing 28.1, has at least faced real offenses all season.

Key Factors

The rest edge belongs to Vanderbilt, which last played on October 24, while Mississippi State played on October 31 - and a rested underdog with a genuine number one receiver in Sherrill is not a pushover. The counterpoint is also obvious: laying points with a team that has scored 18 points in three games takes faith that the drought was about opponents. The evidence says it mostly was.

Taylor's 17 touchdown passes came against the rest of the schedule, Bothwell gives the Bulldogs a ground floor Vanderbilt cannot match, and Starkville is a miserable road environment for a team on a four-game losing streak. Mississippi State's offense does not need to be good on Saturday. It needs to be normal, against the worst defense it has seen in a month, and normal wins this game by more than a field goal.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.