Mississippi State vs Texas Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Texas is ranked No. 11 and laying a big number at home, but the Longhorns have stumbled enough lately to invite doubt, and Mississippi State arrives with a run game that can keep a favorite honest.

The Matchup

Fluff Bothwell is the player Mississippi State's cover case runs through. Bothwell carried 17 times for 111 yards at 6.5 yards per carry in Mississippi State's most recent game, and he has 514 rushing yards on 91 carries this season, a back who gives a road underdog a real identity. Mississippi State runs for 175.0 yards per game and passes for 264.7 yards per game, a balanced offense that scores 30.0 points per game.

Texas scores 30.7 points per game, so the raw scoring gap between these teams is less than a point even though the spread suggests a mismatch. Texas builds its margin on defense and on Raleek Brown. The Longhorns allow 19.1 points per game, and Brown carried 23 times for 157 yards at 6.8 yards per carry in Texas's most recent game, a 34-27 win over Ole Miss.

Arch Manning went 18 of 30 for 212 yards and a touchdown in that game, and Ryan Wingo caught 7 passes for 111 yards and a touchdown. Texas has the higher ceiling at home. Mississippi State's job is to use Bothwell to keep Manning and Wingo watching, and to turn Texas's long drives into field goals instead of touchdowns.

Key Factors

Mississippi State's recent results cut both ways, and the bad ones are hard to ignore. The Bulldogs lost 15-23 to Oklahoma in their most recent game, a respectable margin against a strong opponent, but they also lost 31-0 at LSU and 56-23 to Alabama in October. If the LSU version shows up in Austin, no spread is big enough. Texas has its own inconsistency to answer for.

Manning has thrown 12 touchdowns against 7 interceptions this season, Texas averages only 3.8 yards per carry as a team despite Brown's big game, and the Longhorns lost to Oklahoma and Florida before finding a way past Ole Miss. Mississippi State converts 43.2 percent on third down against 39.2 percent for Texas, which helps Bothwell's drives last and keeps the road crowd in the game longer.

Mississippi State allows 27.7 points per game, the clear risk in the case, because Wingo has 456 yards and 4 touchdowns this season and can punish a defense that crowds the run. What beats Mississippi State here is Texas repeating Brown's dominant afternoon while Manning protects the ball. That combination lets Texas score freely, and Mississippi State would need its full road best to answer.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.