Washington State vs San Diego State Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Washington State is struggling and San Diego State is at home, yet this is no mismatch. The Aztecs leak points to almost everyone, and that leak keeps a limited visitor in the game for longer than the records suggest.

The Matchup

San Diego State allows 36.1 points per game, and that single fact changes what Washington State's offense has to be. Washington State scores only 18.9 points per game and averages 179.3 passing yards per game, numbers that usually travel badly. Against a defense coming off a 56-49 loss to Colorado State, Washington State does not need its best game of the season, just a competent one.

Branden Ganashamoorthy is the receiver who can use those openings. Ganashamoorthy caught 4 passes for 58 yards in Washington State's most recent game and leads the team with 401 yards and 3 touchdowns this season, a proven target against a defense that gives receivers room. San Diego State has the more explosive recent passing.

Jaylon Hawkins caught 6 passes for 164 yards and a touchdown at 27.3 yards per catch in San Diego State's most recent game, and Hawkins has 322 yards this season. The net scoring margins are nearly identical, with Washington State at -8.7 and San Diego State at -9.6, which is why a field goal spread fits a game between two teams that both lose the scoring battle most weeks.

Key Factors

San Diego State's offense is the counterweight, and Washington State's defense allows 27.6 points per game without much pass rush, with only 8 sacks this season. If San Diego State repeats the rhythm of its most recent game, when its passing produced 369 yards and Hawkins kept breaking into open field, Washington State will have to score into the high twenties to stay close, a total Washington State rarely reaches.

Washington State converts only 28.9 percent on third down, the weakest rate in this matchup against San Diego State's 33.3 percent. Staying on the field is Washington State's real challenge, more than finding open receivers against this defense. Washington State has 10 takeaways this season, and San Diego State has given the ball away 12 times, so short fields are available if Washington State takes them and finishes the chances.

What beats Washington State here is San Diego State playing a clean home game. If San Diego State protects the ball and Hawkins keeps producing chunk plays, the home team's 26.5 points per game will stretch this past a field goal late, and Washington State has shown little ability to chase that script.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.