Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Bundesliga

Werder Bremen travel like a side that cannot keep a game quiet, scoring on the road and conceding just as freely, and Stuttgart's home matches have been every bit as open even while the points have slipped away. Saturday at the MHPArena has the feel of a game that stretches early and never really settles back down.

The Matchup

Werder Bremen travel in sixth place at 3-3-1, and their away games rarely settle down. Werder have scored 7 goals in four away matches, which tells only half of it. They have also conceded 9 on the road, so the game in front of them is usually open at both ends. The last three results show the pattern at its clearest. Werder drew 2-2 at Borussia Dortmund, drew 2-2 with SC Paderborn 07, then won 3-2 at Mainz, and every one of those afternoons asked the attack to keep up with the defending.

Niclas Füllkrug is expected to start and lead the line, and he is the reason Werder can play this way without bluffing. Füllkrug has 8 goals this season, more than any other player in the Bundesliga, and two of them came from the penalty spot in the win at Mainz last time out.

The support around him is producing too. Marco Grüll set up a goal at Mainz, and Ludovit Reis scored in that same win. Both are expected to start again, and a side sixth in the table with that kind of spread of scorers does not need to force chances. Chances tend to find Werder, at both ends.

Stuttgart look like the contradiction in this match. They sit fifteenth at 2-0-5, a record that suggests a side getting played off the park, and that is not what their home games have looked like. Stuttgart have scored 6 goals and conceded 5 in three home matches, and the chances have been there even when the points have not.

Ermedin Demirovic is expected to start after scoring twice in the 3-2 home defeat to Borussia Mönchengladbach on October 23. A striker in that kind of touch changes how a struggling side approaches a home game. Stuttgart do not need to sit in and hope here. They need a win, and the visitors in front of them invite exactly the kind of open game Stuttgart have been playing at home anyway.

Key Factors

The route to goals in this one is not complicated. Werder's defending has not traveled well all season, and Stuttgart's home defending has been no steadier, so both sides should expect to give up real chances rather than isolated half chances.

When two attacks this willing meet two defenses this generous, a game tends to open in layers. One goal pulls the other side forward, and the space that follows is where the next one comes from. Neither of these sides has shown much interest in protecting a 1-0, and neither is built to do it for long.

Neither club has named its side yet. The expectation is Füllkrug leading Werder again, with Grüll and Reis expected to start after both were involved in the goals at Mainz, and Demirovic leading Stuttgart. Bilal El Khannouss, who has 1 goal this season, is expected to be available for Stuttgart without having started the Gladbach match. Stuttgart are without Josha Vagnoman.

Vagnoman, who has 2 goals this season, strained a hamstring in the Champions League match against Atletico Madrid and was expected to miss three to four weeks from late October, a timeline that runs past this match. His absence takes some running and width out of the home side. It does not change Stuttgart's basic problem. Stuttgart still have to score to win this game, and Werder still have to chase it if they fall behind.

The way the over loses is easy to picture, and it runs through Stuttgart's nerves rather than Werder's attack. Stuttgart have lost five of seven, and they failed to score in the 1-0 home defeat to Borussia Dortmund on September 19 and again in the 1-0 defeat at Hamburg on October 17.

If Demirovic is isolated early and the home crowd turns anxious, Stuttgart can retreat into the cautious version of themselves, and a patient Werder side could let the tempo die. That risk is real. It is also the version of Stuttgart that their home scoring record argues against, and Werder's away games have a habit of dragging opponents into the exchange whether they want it or not.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.