AFC Bournemouth vs Ipswich Town Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Premier League

Ipswich Town keep scoring in games they do not win, and AFC Bournemouth keep conceding on the road, which makes Sunday at Portman Road a meeting of two sides whose seasons have been louder than their league positions suggest. Fourteenth hosts ninth, with Ipswich one point behind the visitors and running out of home matches this forgiving.

The Matchup

Ipswich Town sit fourteenth with 11 points from nine matches, and their season has a split personality. At Portman Road they have been tidy enough, just over a goal scored and a goal conceded per game, but the attack travels even better than it stays home: they scored twice at Manchester City in a 3-2 defeat and twice at Hull City in a 2-2 draw, and their only blank in the last five came in a 1-0 loss at Everton. Julio Enciso runs the front line's imagination, with 2 goals, 2 assists and 28 shots, Emersonn has 2 goals, and Leif Davis has added 2 goals and an assist from left back, which tells you how much of Ipswich's play funnels down that side.

Bournemouth are ninth on 12 points, and the mirror image is unflattering on the road. They have scored 7 goals across their four trips but conceded 9, five of them in one afternoon at Chelsea. The attack is genuinely good.

Marcus Tavernier has 5 goals, Evanilson has 4 goals and 4 assists, and Rayan has taken 27 shots, and Bournemouth won 3-0 at Old Trafford on October 25 before beating Leeds United 2-0 at home last weekend. A side that can win at Old Trafford and ship five at Stamford Bridge in the same month is a hard guest to price, and an easy one to root against at a short price.

Neither club has named its side yet. The expectation is Ipswich in the 4-2-3-1 that drew at Hull City, with Christian Walton in goal, Davis at left back, and Enciso and Emersonn expected to start again after both started that match. Bournemouth are expected to keep the 4-2-3-1 that beat Leeds United, with Tavernier and Evanilson expected to lead the attack again. Neither club has a starter ruled out in the latest team news.

Key Factors

The case here is Bournemouth's defending once it leaves Dorset. Nine conceded in four away matches is not a blip, it is a pattern with a shape: Chelsea played through them, and even the clean sheet at Old Trafford came against a United side that has stopped scoring.

Ipswich's front line is built to punish exactly that looseness, because Enciso drifts between lines and Davis overlaps into the space a narrow away midfield leaves behind. Ipswich have also had eight days since the Hull draw, the same rest Bournemouth have had since Leeds, so the schedule hands neither side an excuse.

The counterpoint is real, and it is Bournemouth's front two. Tavernier and Evanilson have nine goals between them, more than Ipswich's entire first-choice attack has managed, and Bournemouth have won three of their last five, including that 3-0 at Old Trafford.

If Bournemouth score first and Ipswich have to chase, the home side's tidy home record goes out of the window, because chasing is when their defence, which has conceded 18 goals this season, gets stretched. What beats this pick is simply a Bournemouth win, and they are favored for a reason. The read is that their away defence gives Ipswich too many routes back into the game for that win to be trusted at this price.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.