Leeds United vs AFC Bournemouth Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Premier League

Thirteenth hosts seventh at the Vitality on Saturday, and the table is the least interesting thing about it. Bournemouth have won five straight matches without conceding, Leeds have lost once all season, and something has to bend.

The Matchup

Bournemouth's league season looks ordinary until the last fortnight is added to it. Marco Rose's side sit thirteenth at 2-3-3 with 12 goals scored and 13 conceded, and their home league record is one win, two draws and a defeat. The surge is real, though.

Bournemouth have won their last five matches in all competitions without conceding a goal, beating SK Sturm Graz 3-0, Sunderland 2-0, AC Milan 3-0 and Aston Villa 3-0 at home, and winning 3-0 at Manchester United last Sunday in the league. Leeds United arrive seventh at 2-5-1, the harder side to beat on paper, with one defeat all season and only 6 goals conceded in eight matches. Leeds have won one, drawn two and lost one of their four away matches, scoring 3 goals and conceding 3.

Neither club has named its side yet. The expectation is Evanilson leading Bournemouth's line again after starting at Old Trafford, with Rayan, Justin Kluivert and Marcus Tavernier around him and Tyler Adams and Lewis Cook in midfield. Bournemouth remain without Alex Scott, Alex Toth and Julián Araujo, and Veljko Milosavljevic is out with a knee injury.

For Leeds, the expectation is Dominic Calvert-Lewin leading the line again after starting at Sunderland, with Nico Elvedi expected back in the back three after illness kept him out of that match. Joe Rodon is a doubt after returning to partial training following a hamstring injury, Daniel James is a doubt with a back problem, Anton Stach is a doubt with a foot injury, and Mateo Joseph is out with a knee injury.

Key Factors

Evanilson is the player Leeds have to stop. The Bournemouth striker has 3 league goals and a team-high 4 assists, and Marcus Tavernier has been the finisher around him, with 5 league goals, the latest of them at Old Trafford last Sunday. Leeds' problem is at the other end.

Daniel Farke's side have scored 9 goals in eight matches, only 3 of them away from home, and Calvert-Lewin's 3 goals make him the only Leeds player with more than 2. A side that scores that sparingly cannot afford to fall behind to a home team keeping clean sheets every week.

The counterpoint is Leeds themselves. They have drawn five of their eight matches, including a 0-0 at Sunderland last Sunday and a 1-1 with Manchester United, and a defence that has conceded 6 goals all season does not get rolled over by a good fortnight.

Leeds have also had a clear week to prepare while Bournemouth played on Wednesday, although Rose rotated heavily in the cup win over Aston Villa, keeping only António Silva, Lewis Cook and Marcus Tavernier from the side that started at Old Trafford, so the freshness gap is smaller than the calendar suggests. If Leeds slow this into the level, low-scoring game they specialise in, Bournemouth's home league record says the points can slip away.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.