FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City SC Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - MLS

Eighth-seeded Orlando City SC host ninth-seeded FC Cincinnati at Inter&Co Stadium in the Eastern Conference Wild Card, the clubs level on 46 points and meeting in the postseason for the first time. Orlando went 10-3-4 at home behind Martín Ojeda and Antoine Griezmann, while Cincinnati won 3 of 17 on the road and conceded 43 goals doing it.

The Matchup

The Eastern Conference Wild Card sends FC Cincinnati to Inter&Co Stadium on Thursday night, and the tie could hardly be tighter on paper. Orlando City SC and Cincinnati finished level on 46 points, Orlando eighth in the East at 13-7-14 and Cincinnati ninth at 12-10-12, and Orlando took the home match the only way the table allowed, beating New England Revolution 1-0 on Decision Day while Cincinnati lost 2-0 at home to Nashville SC. The winner goes to Nashville, the East's top seed, in Round One, and the clubs have never met in the postseason.\n\nWhat Orlando have is a home split that changes the match. They went 10-3-4 at Inter&Co Stadium, scoring 33 and conceding 22, a defence that gives up 1.29 goals a match at home against 3.29 a match on the road.

The front two carry the rest. Martín Ojeda, the captain, scored 16 goals with 5 assists, and Antoine Griezmann has 14 goals and 8 assists in 18 appearances since joining in July, with 4 of those goals in the last five matches. Iván Angulo added 7 goals and 8 assists, and Justin Ellis supplied 11 assists, so the supply does not stop with the two names at the top of the team sheet.\n\nCincinnati score more and travel worse. They put 67 goals on the board this season, Kévin Denkey leading them with 17, but Denkey has not scored in the last five matches, and the run-in ran through Evander instead, whose 14 goals and 16 assists include a goal and 3 assists across those five games.

Tom Barlow has 10 goals and Pavel Bucha 10 assists, so the threat is real and shared. The problem is the other end on nights like this one. Cincinnati won 3 of 17 away matches and conceded 43 goals in them, 2.53 a match, and a side that defends its travels like that does not get to choose how open a playoff game becomes.\n\nNeither club has named its side yet. The expectation is Orlando in the 4-4-2 they used against New England, with Ojeda and Griezmann leading the line and Marco Pasalic and Angulo wide.

Captain Robin Jansson missed Decision Day with a foot injury and remains a doubt, and Tyrese Spicer is in the same position, also with a foot injury, so the back line may stay the patched one that kept the clean sheet against New England. Cincinnati are expected to keep the 3-4-1-2 from the Nashville match, Evander behind Denkey and Barlow, but Teenage Hadebe was forced off at half-time in that game with an apparent leg injury and is a doubt, with Miles Robinson, who played the second half, expected to step in if Hadebe cannot go. Julián Malatini and Nick Hagglund remain unavailable for Cincinnati, as they were on Decision Day.

Key Factors

Orlando's last five tell the story of a side that scores in bunches and occasionally falls apart. They beat D.C. United 4-1, drew 2-2 with New York City FC and 2-2 at Chicago Fire FC, lost 4-0 at Charlotte FC, and closed with the 1-0 win over New England, 9 goals scored and 9 conceded across the five. Cincinnati's last five were tighter and better than their season: wins over D.C. United twice, 2-1 at home and 2-0 away, a 2-2 draw at Inter Miami CF, a 1-0 win over Philadelphia Union, and the 2-0 loss to Nashville, with only 5 goals conceded.

A Cincinnati side that has tightened up this much can frustrate Orlando for long stretches, and both clubs have had 12 days to prepare since Decision Day.\n\nThe honest counterpoint wears Cincinnati's colours. Cincinnati are unbeaten against Orlando this season, winning 6-2 at home in May in an eight-goal game and drawing 1-1 at this stadium in August, and no Orlando defender needs reminding what Denkey and Evander did to them that night in May.

If Cincinnati score first here, Orlando's home crowd has watched this team concede in waves on the road and knows the wobble is in them, and a level game late suits the visitors, who drew 7 of their 17 away matches and can take their chances in a shootout.\n\nWhat answers the counterpoint is where the match is played. Orlando's home defending is the single most reliable unit in this tie, and Cincinnati's away defending is the least reliable, and over 17 matches each those are identities, not moods.

Griezmann arrives as the form forward on either side, and Orlando's attack does not depend on one man having a night. Cincinnati's does, increasingly, on Evander creating something Denkey can finish, and Denkey's five quiet matches say that connection is not where it was.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.