Alabama State Hornets vs Texas A&M Aggies Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Texas A&M opens at Reed Arena with one of the best scorers in the country and a defense that allowed 78.9 points a game last season. Alabama State brings two guards who have each scored 20 points a game in a college season.

The Matchup

Texas A&M is a 27.5-point favorite over Alabama State at Reed Arena in College Station on Tuesday night, with a total of 162.5, on SECN+. It is the first meeting ever between the two programs and the season opener for both. Texas A&M finished 22-12 last season, scoring 86.1 points per game and allowing 78.9. Alabama State finished 10-22, scoring 73.2 and allowing 77.3. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

The Aggies' new centerpiece is PJ Haggerty, a transfer from Kansas State who averaged 23.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.8 assists last season, fourth in the country in scoring, with five games of 30 points or more. He scored 28 points in the exhibition loss to SMU. Jordan Pope, in from Texas, averaged 13.1 points last season and scored 15 against SMU.

Mackenzie Mgbako is back and fully healthy after a broken foot limited him to seven games last season, when he averaged 10.4 points and 4.9 rebounds, and he had 12 points and eight rebounds against SMU. Texas A&M will not have Rylan Griffen tonight. The senior guard is ineligible while his eligibility court case plays out, and the Aggies lose a player who averaged 11.2 points with a team-high 1.6 steals last season.

Alabama State's backcourt is better than its record suggests. Mike James averaged 21.4 points a game at Mississippi Valley State last season and is a preseason first-team All-SWAC pick.

Paul McMillan IV averaged 20.0 points a game at Canisius in 2024-25, and he has not played a regular-season game since then after redshirting last season at Grambling State, so his number comes with a date on it. The Hornets are in their first season under Chris Wright, his first at the Division I level, they were picked seventh in the SWAC preseason poll, and they bring back just four players from last season.

Key Factors

Texas A&M's defense is the soft spot in this spread, and it was soft in exactly the same way in the dress rehearsal. The Aggies allowed 78.9 points a game last season, and then they lost their final exhibition to SMU 94-88, allowing 94.

Their coach has spent the fall saying the defensive fouling still has not been fixed through three scrimmages. A favorite that fouls sends an underdog to the line with the clock stopped, and a total of 162.5 tells you the market expects a game played in the open, with chances for both teams to score in bunches.

That suits Alabama State's guards. James is a proven volume scorer at this level of college basketball, and McMillan has been a 20-point scorer and a league's leading scorer, even if it was two seasons ago. The Hornets do not need to stop Haggerty, which is fortunate, because they will not. They need to answer often enough that Texas A&M's lead stays in the teens and low twenties instead of running away, and a high-possession game gives them more chances to answer than a grind would.

The counterpoint is the building and the streak. Texas A&M is 11-0 when it opens a season at Reed Arena, it has reached four straight NCAA Tournaments, and Haggerty is good enough to turn a sloppy first half into a personal run that buries an underdog by himself. Alabama State has four returners, a new coach, and a roster that has never played together, on the road, against a team that presses and scores. If the Hornets turn the ball over early and often, the margin can reach this number by halftime and stay there.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.