Holy Cross Crusaders vs Rhode Island Rams Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Rhode Island opens its season at the Ryan Center against a Holy Cross team in transition, with eight newcomers and just one starter back from its final game last season. The Crusaders will be without senior Joe Nugent, who is still recovering from an Achilles tear suffered during conference play last season, while the Rams counter with a transfer-heavy rotation led by Dylan Williamson.

The Matchup

Rhode Island is a 17.5-point favorite over Holy Cross at the Ryan Center in Kingston on Tuesday night, with a total of 149.5, on ESPN+. It is the season opener for both teams. Rhode Island finished 16-16 last season, scoring 69.9 points per game and allowing 68.2. Holy Cross finished 11-22, scoring 68.2 and allowing 73.3. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now. Holy Cross has eight newcomers and brings back just one starter from its final game last season.

The availability news sits heavily on the visiting side, and it has to be said plainly. Joe Nugent is out for this game. The senior is recovering from an Achilles tear he suffered during conference play last season, he averaged 11.8 points a game in 21 games before the injury with 48 made three-pointers at 40.7 percent, and his coach, Dave Paulsen, calls him arguably the team's best player and hopes to have him back by conference play.

John St. Germain III is questionable to play tonight. The senior, the likely starting point guard if he is healthy, is dealing with a nagging leg injury. Keep an eye on whether St. Germain plays before placing a bet. On the Rhode Island side, Mouhamed Sow and Jaen Chatman did not dress for the final exhibition, and coach Archie Miller said his anticipation was that everybody would be available for the opener.

Rhode Island's talent is real. Dylan Williamson, a transfer from Towson, averaged 14.6 points and 3.4 assists last season and made the CAA third team. Jonah Hinton averaged 12.6 points, Jahmere Tripp averaged 12.0, and Matas Deniusas started all 33 games at UT Martin, averaged 12.5 points and 5.2 rebounds, and was the Ohio Valley Conference Rookie of the Year. Deniusas had 20 points and 16 rebounds in the final tune-up against Southern New Hampshire, a Division II opponent, which is context worth keeping.

Key Factors

Holy Cross's case starts with two guards who scored real points at their last stops, even if those stops were in Division II. Kole Hanson averaged 14.9 points a game at Minnesota Duluth, made the NSIC first team, and scored a team-high 18 points off the bench in an exhibition at Vermont.

Arius Alijosius averaged 18.5 points at Lewis and shot 40.9 percent from three. Declan Ryan, the top returning post option, scored 16 points on 8-of-9 shooting in that same Vermont exhibition after averaging 4.9 points last season. Division II production does not always travel up a level, but shot making usually travels better than most things.

The Crusaders also play a clean game, and clean games are hard to blow out. Last season Holy Cross committed just 10.2 turnovers a game, second in the Patriot League, and 15.6 fouls a game, and it shot 75.6 percent at the free throw line.

A team that protects the ball, stays out of foul trouble, and makes its free throws gives a favorite very few free possessions to build a margin with. Rhode Island's own offense was modest last season at 69.9 points a game, and the Rams shot 5-for-28 from three in their final tune-up. A favorite that scores in the high sixties has to defend almost perfectly to win by 18.

The counterpoint is the roster math. Holy Cross lost four players who averaged more than 10 points a game, Nugent included, and it was picked eighth in the Patriot League preseason poll. If Williamson and Tripp pressure a new backcourt, especially one missing its starting point guard, the turnovers that never came last season can arrive all at once, and Rhode Island's depth can turn a close game into a rout in one second half stretch. That is the risk, and it is a real one.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.