App State Mountaineers vs Merrimack Warriors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

App State allowed 66.1 points per game last season and just watched senior guard Eren Banks carry the scoring in the exhibitions. Merrimack defends too, but the Warriors scored 68.5 a game last season, and points will be scarce in a 5 a.m. tip in Rock Hill.

The Matchup

Merrimack is a 3.5-point favorite over App State at the Rock Hill Sports & Event Center in South Carolina, with a total of 136.5 and the Warriors at -170 on the moneyline. It is a neutral floor and a season opener for both teams in the Field of 68 Opening Day Marathon, tipping at 5 a.m. Central on YouTube.

Neither team has played a game that counts, so last season is the starting point. Merrimack finished 23-11, scoring 68.5 points per game and allowing 66.5. App State finished 19-13, scoring 72.0 and allowing 66.1. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

App State's October was loud for a defensive team. Senior guard Eren Banks, back after averaging 6.6 points per game last season, scored 52 points across the Mountaineers' two exhibitions: 24 against Winthrop in this same Rock Hill building on October 17, and 28 more against Western Carolina three days later, when he made 8 of 11 threes and added 8 rebounds and 5 assists.

Banks is one of three returners on a roster that lost its top five scorers, and senior guard Ben Kopetzki arrived from Division II Concordia-St. Paul, where he averaged 21.1 points per game last season and led his conference in scoring. That gives a defense-first team an offensive anchor it did not obviously have. App State's identity still starts at the other end, where its 66.1 points allowed per game was the stingier mark in this matchup.

Merrimack's identity is control. The Warriors won 23 games last season playing slowly and defending in their matchup zone, scoring just 68.5 points per game while allowing 66.5. That style travels, and it is why Merrimack is favored despite scoring less than almost anyone in the marathon field. The Warriors do not need to outscore App State so much as outlast the Mountaineers, one long possession at a time.

Key Factors

This is a defense-first game, and the total says so at 136.5. App State's games averaged 138.1 points last season and Merrimack's averaged 135.0, so the number is honest. In a game played in the 130s, every empty trip matters more, and 3.5 points of cushion is worth more than it would be in a shootout. That favors the underdog with the slightly better defense and the in-form guard.

The possession battle leans App State's way too. Merrimack has to score against a set defense for 40 minutes, and the Warriors' half-court offense was the weaker unit on this floor last season at 68.5 points per game.

Merrimack also lost its two best creators from that team, and guard Tye Dorset, who averaged 11.7 points per game last season, is expected to miss time after an ACL tear. If Banks keeps playing the way he did in October, App State also has the best individual scorer in a game where one player's run can decide the cover.

The counterpoint is Merrimack's system itself. A matchup zone that a roster has run for years can strangle a team seeing it for the first time, and App State's exhibition points came against Winthrop and Western Carolina, not against this defense. If the Mountaineers' new guards get impatient and start forcing shots late in the clock, Merrimack wins this game in the 60s and covers. Openers at 5 a.m. are ugly, though, and ugly is where a tough defensive underdog wants to live.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.