Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Villanova Wildcats Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Villanova opens its season in Rome without a starter, as Matt Hodge is still rehabbing the torn ACL he suffered last season and has no timetable to return. Notre Dame has injury questions of its own, with Braeden Shrewsberry bruised and Logan Duncomb day-to-day, but the Irish bring the shooting and the exhibition form to keep a neutral-floor opener close.

The Matchup

The college basketball season opens in Rome on Sunday morning, with Villanova a 7.5-point favorite over Notre Dame at Palazzo dello Sport in the Eternal City Tip-Off, a total of 148.5 and Villanova at -305 on the moneyline. Both teams are 0-0, so last season is the starting point.

Villanova finished 24-9, scoring 77.1 points per game and allowing 71.2, while Notre Dame finished 13-18, scoring 74.5 and allowing 75.3. Villanova was the better team, full stop. What has changed since March is who is actually available, and that is where this spread starts to look generous.

Villanova's two best returning pieces are in form. Guard Tyler Perkins, the Big East Most Improved Player after averaging 13.7 points and 5.4 rebounds while starting all 33 games, is fully cleared after offseason shoulder surgery and averaged 19.0 points across the Wildcats' first two exhibitions.

Forward Devin Royal, who averaged 13.7 points and 5.7 rebounds at Ohio State last season, has been the best player on the floor this month, averaging 22.5 points and 9.0 rebounds in those same two exhibitions. But the third name on Villanova's frontcourt list, forward Matt Hodge, will not play in Rome.

Hodge started all 29 games he appeared in last season before tearing the ACL in his right knee on February 28, he had surgery on March 6, and he sat out every exhibition while coach Kevin Willard says there is no timetable for his return. Villanova is thinner still if Kwame Evans Jr. cannot go. The Oregon transfer forward is day-to-day with a left leg injury, and he sat out all three exhibitions, including the Virginia finale on October 23.

Notre Dame's health news runs the other way, mostly. Guard Braeden Shrewsberry, the Irish's top returning scorer at 11.9 points per game on 40.2 percent shooting from three, bruised his back in the first exhibition and left Friday's game at DePaul after six minutes, but his coach said afterward that he will be fine.

The Irish center spot is less settled. Logan Duncomb, the projected starter and last season's Big South Player of the Year at Winthrop, is day-to-day after injuring his left leg against Dayton. He sat out the DePaul game, though he moved through Thursday's practice with no noticeable limp and no brace on the leg.

Forward Brady Koehler and center Tommy Ahneman both played Friday and both matter here, for opposite reasons. Koehler is coming off a breakout night, and Ahneman is coming off a lost season. It is a neutral floor in Italy, on Fox, with neither team ranked in the preseason AP Top 25, and one favorite missing a starter the market may still be counting.

Key Factors

Hodge was not a star, but he was a 6-8 starter who played 27.6 minutes a night, averaged 9.2 points and 3.6 rebounds, and shot 36.8 percent from three, which made him the floor-spacer who let Perkins and Royal work inside. Without him, Willard's frontcourt leans on Royal, a day-to-day Evans and freshman center Luigi Suigo, who is 7-3 and talented but picked up two fouls in the first 76 seconds against George Mason and fouled out of that exhibition.

Keep an eye on whether Evans plays before placing a bet. That is exactly the setting where a favorite's margin leaks away in the second half, when legs and foul trouble meet a bench that has never played a college game that counts.

Notre Dame's path to staying inside the number is its shooting, and the evidence is fresh. The Irish hit 12 threes in Friday's 71-63 exhibition win at DePaul, and Koehler, who averaged just 5.6 points in 15.9 minutes a game last season, led them with 19 points and five assists in 29 minutes, hitting three triples. If Koehler's October is real, Notre Dame suddenly has a second scorer next to Shrewsberry, whose shooting from deep makes him the one Irish player Villanova cannot afford to lose track of.

Ahneman is the wild card in the other direction. The 6-10 sophomore spent all of last season rehabbing his left knee after preseason surgery and has never played a college minute that counts. He scored in the decisive late run at DePaul and blocked a shot in the closing minutes, but a season opener in Rome is a lot to ask of a debut, and it asks more of him if Duncomb cannot go. Keep an eye on whether Duncomb plays before placing a bet.

The honest counterpoint is Villanova's top end. Perkins and Royal have carried the Wildcats through the exhibitions, and if they reproduce that form against a Notre Dame defense that was the weaker of these two last season, Villanova can build a double-digit lead before the Irish settle. Shrewsberry's back is the other risk.

If he is limited again, Notre Dame loses its most proven shooter and the cover case gets much thinner. That outcome is plausible, and it is why Villanova is favored. But the Wildcats have to win by eight or more with a shortened rotation, in a sloppy opener, against a team that just showed it can shoot.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.