Arizona State vs BYU Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

BYU is No. 8 in the AP Top 25 at 6-1, and Arizona State comes to Provo at 4-3 after beating Kansas State 28-17 behind a running back who scored 4 touchdowns. BYU just lost 39-31 at UCF, so the Cougars' home crowd gets a team that needs a response and an opponent that just found its ground game.

The Matchup

Cardae Mack changed Arizona State's offense against Kansas State, and BYU has to deal with that version of the Sun Devils. Mack carried 26 times for 159 yards and 4 touchdowns in the 28-17 win, lifting Mack to 400 yards and 6 touchdowns on just 55 carries this season.

Reed Harris was just as damaging through the air, catching 6 passes for 147 yards at 24.5 yards per catch, and Harris now has 800 yards and 8 touchdowns on 47 catches. Arizona State scores 30.9 points per game and averages 267.4 passing yards, so BYU cannot simply load up on Mack and ignore Harris. BYU allows 18.6 points per game, a strong defense, but BYU gave up 39 points at UCF last week in the Cougars' first loss.

Arizona State's problem all season has been third down at 30.1 percent, the worst mark in this matchup by a wide margin against BYU's 54.7 percent. If Mack keeps Arizona State in second-and-manageable the way Mack did against Kansas State, that third-down gap shrinks and the Sun Devils can sustain the drives this cover requires.

Key Factors

Bear Bachmeier is steady enough to win this game for BYU, and Bachmeier's control is the counterpoint. Bachmeier has thrown for 1,514 yards with 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and Bachmeier went 16 of 32 for 257 yards and 2 touchdowns in the loss at UCF.

BYU rushes for 193.7 yards per game at 5.4 yards per carry with 18 rushing touchdowns, and BYU converts 54.7 percent of third downs, which is how favorites pull away late at home. Arizona State allows 29.9 points per game, so BYU will score, and if Bachmeier avoids mistakes and BYU's ground game controls the fourth quarter, BYU can absolutely win by three scores at LaVell Edwards Stadium.

Arizona State's cover case is narrower and rests on splash plays. Harris averages 17.0 yards per catch on the season and just posted 147 yards, Mack averages 7.3 yards per carry on the season, and a team with two players producing at that rate does not need long drives to answer BYU scores and keep the margin in range.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.