Miami vs North Carolina Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Miami, No. 1 in the AP Top 25, is 7-0 and scores 49.0 points per game behind a quarterback who has thrown 1 interception all season. North Carolina keeps landing in one-score games at home, and Kenan Stadium gets the Hurricanes next.

The Matchup

Darian Mensah has been close to flawless for Miami. Mensah has thrown for 2,151 yards and 22 touchdowns against 1 interception this season, and Mensah went 31 of 37 for 387 yards and 4 touchdowns in Miami's most recent game. Malachi Toney turns that accuracy into damage. Toney caught 16 passes for 194 yards and 3 touchdowns in that same game, and Toney has 952 yards and 11 touchdowns this season.

Miami completes 80.9 percent of its passes, averages 10.4 yards per attempt, and adds 211.1 rushing yards per game, so North Carolina cannot load up on one phase. North Carolina's answer is a defense that keeps scores manageable. North Carolina allows 20.9 points per game, and North Carolina's last three games finished 21-17, 24-20 and a 31-30 loss to Syracuse.

Billy Edwards Jr. gives that defense a partner. Edwards went 27 of 44 for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions in North Carolina's most recent game, and Jordan Shipp caught 8 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown in that game. Edwards and Shipp have to sustain drives, because quick punts against Miami become touchdowns.

Key Factors

North Carolina's run game is the weak link in the cover case. North Carolina rushes for only 114.0 yards per game at 3.9 yards per carry, and Miami allows 15.3 points per game. If Edwards has to throw 44 times again, Miami's offense gets extra possessions and Mensah's efficiency usually turns those into separation.

North Carolina converts 40.5 percent on third down, enough to extend some drives, and Shipp has 543 yards this season as Edwards's clear top target with 41 catches. Miami also runs well enough to close, with Javian Mallory scoring 2 touchdowns in the most recent game and 7 rushing touchdowns this season. What beats North Carolina here is Miami scoring early the way Miami scored against Pittsburgh in a 52-23 win last week.

If Toney gets loose for another 100-yard half and North Carolina trails by three scores, Edwards chasing at 7.5 yards per attempt will not keep pace with Mensah at 10.4. North Carolina needs its defense to force field goals and keep this a two-score game into the fourth quarter, where 14.5 points becomes a large cushion.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.