Ohio State vs USC Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Ohio State, No. 2 in the AP Top 25, has had 13 days to prepare for the Coliseum, and USC has had 6 days to sit with a 24-7 loss at Wisconsin. USC's passing game and third-down rate are good enough to make the rest gap matter less than it looks.

The Matchup

Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith set Ohio State's ceiling. Sayin has thrown for 2,007 yards and 19 touchdowns this season at 10.7 yards per attempt for Ohio State, and Smith has 984 yards and 12 touchdowns on 52 catches. Smith caught 4 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown in Ohio State's most recent game, and Ohio State scores 39.3 points per game while allowing only 13.4 points per game.

USC has a passing game that can answer in kind, which most Ohio State opponents do not. Jayden Maiava has thrown for 2,302 yards and 19 touchdowns this season, more yardage than Sayin, and USC averages 303.5 passing yards per game against Ohio State's 323.1.

Maiava went 31 of 50 for 258 yards in USC's most recent game, a volume that shows USC will keep throwing at home. USC also converts 50.5 percent on third down, the best rate in this matchup against Ohio State's 44.3 percent. Those conversions are how USC keeps Sayin and Smith off the field and keeps a home game within one score.

Key Factors

Ohio State's defense and rest are the strongest arguments against USC. Ohio State allows 13.4 points per game, has 16 takeaways this season, and has had 13 days since its last game against 6 days for USC. USC allows 25.0 points per game, so Smith will find space, and Bo Jackson gives Ohio State a steady run option with 516 yards this season even though Jackson was held to 56 yards on 18 carries in the most recent game.

USC's protection of drives matters more than USC's yardage. Maiava threw 2 interceptions in the loss at Wisconsin, and Sayin also threw 2 interceptions in Ohio State's most recent game, a 19-15 win at Indiana that showed Ohio State can be dragged into a tight game on the road.

Taniela Tupou caught 6 passes for 46 yards and a touchdown for USC in that Wisconsin game, a short-range outlet Maiava needs against this defense. What beats USC here is Ohio State turning Maiava's volume into mistakes. If Ohio State's takeaways pile up and Smith scores early, USC's third-down edge will not matter because USC will be chasing by two scores.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.