Arizona State vs BYU Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

BYU is No. 8 in the AP Top 25 and gets Arizona State in Provo, but the Cougars just lost at UCF and now face a visitor that finally found its ground game. The home crowd expects a response, and the Sun Devils suddenly look equipped to make BYU earn one.

The Matchup

Cardae Mack changed Arizona State's offense against Kansas State, and BYU has to deal with that version of the Sun Devils. Mack carried 26 times for 159 yards and 4 touchdowns in the 28-17 win, lifting him to 400 yards and 6 touchdowns on just 55 carries this season. Reed Harris was just as damaging through the air, catching 6 passes for 147 yards at 24.5 yards per catch, and Harris now has 800 yards and 8 touchdowns on 47 catches.

Arizona State scores 30.9 points per game and averages 267.4 passing yards, so BYU cannot simply load up on Mack and dare the Sun Devils to throw. BYU allows 18.6 points per game and defends well most weeks, but the Cougars gave up 39 points at UCF in their first loss, and that tape will be all over Arizona State's game plan.

The Sun Devils' real problem is third down, where they convert 30.1 percent, by far the worst mark in this matchup. If Mack keeps Arizona State in second-and-manageable the way he did against Kansas State, that weakness shrinks, and the Sun Devils can sustain the long drives this cover requires.

Key Factors

Bear Bachmeier is steady enough to win this game for BYU, and his control is the counterpoint to everything above. Bachmeier has thrown for 1,514 yards with 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and he went 16 of 32 for 257 yards and 2 touchdowns in the loss at UCF.

BYU rushes for 193.7 yards per game at 5.4 yards per carry with 18 rushing touchdowns, and the Cougars convert 54.7 percent of their third downs, which is exactly how favorites pull away late at home. Arizona State allows 29.9 points per game, so BYU will score, and if Bachmeier avoids mistakes while the ground game owns the fourth quarter, the Cougars can absolutely win by three scores at LaVell Edwards Stadium.

Arizona State's cover case is narrower and rests on splash plays. Harris averages 17.0 yards per catch on the season, Mack averages 7.3 yards per carry, and a team with two players producing at that rate does not need long, perfect drives to answer BYU scores. The Sun Devils need their stars to hit a few explosives and keep the margin in range, and both stars just showed they can.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.