Auburn vs Ole Miss Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Ole Miss is No. 12 in the AP Top 25 and can score in bunches at home, but Auburn brings a dual-threat quarterback and a defense that gives up less than the Rebels give up. The gap between these teams in Oxford looks smaller than the line suggests.

The Matchup

Byrum Brown makes Auburn very hard to bury. Brown has thrown for 1,365 yards and 8 touchdowns and run for 479 yards and 6 more scores, which makes Auburn's quarterback also Auburn's leading rusher. He threw for 160 yards against LSU and carried 19 times in that game, and Keshaun Singleton caught 4 passes for 64 yards. Singleton has 36 catches for 431 yards this season and gives Brown one dependable option when plays break down.

Auburn averages 25.4 points per game and converts 43.0 percent on third down, which matters against an Ole Miss defense allowing 25.3 points per game. Ole Miss has the higher ceiling, no question. Trinidad Chambliss has thrown for 1,926 yards and 16 touchdowns, Deuce Alexander has 43 catches for 610 yards and 5 touchdowns, and Alexander just caught 8 passes for 87 yards at Texas.

The Rebels average 36.0 points per game with 284.9 passing yards per game. So the setup is a pace question. If Chambliss gets Ole Miss into the thirties early, Auburn has to throw to survive. If Brown keeps Auburn on schedule and a defense allowing 24.1 points per game gets a few stops, the favorite has to work for every bit of separation.

Key Factors

Chambliss's last game cuts both ways for Ole Miss, and Auburn's whole case lives inside it. Chambliss threw for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns at Texas, but he also threw 3 interceptions on 52 attempts and averaged only 4.8 yards per attempt in a 34-27 loss. Auburn has taken the ball away 11 times with 8 interceptions, so careless throws carry a real cost in this matchup.

Brown's running attacks the cleanest Ole Miss path to covering, which is building a lead and forcing Auburn into obvious passing downs. Brown has 126 carries this season, and Auburn averages 165.4 rushing yards per game at 4.3 yards per carry, so the Tigers can keep the clock and the chains moving even when the passing game stalls. The counterpoint is Alexander's consistency and Ole Miss's sheer passing volume.

If Chambliss avoids the interceptions, the Rebels can stretch Auburn the way LSU did in a 38-17 Auburn loss last week. Auburn's quarterbacks have thrown 7 interceptions, and Brown threw no touchdown passes against LSU, so Auburn needs Brown efficient rather than merely busy. A turnover or two from him in Oxford lets Ole Miss turn a fight into the comfortable win the line expects.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.