Arizona Wildcats vs UCLA Bruins Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Arizona lost its top three scorers from a 36-3 team, and UCLA lost its top two. What is left meets in Las Vegas, where Eric Dailey Jr. just made seven threes in an exhibition and the Wildcats still barely shoot them.

The Matchup

Arizona is a 4.5-point favorite over UCLA at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Monday night, the second game of the Hall of Fame Series doubleheader, with a total of 150.5 and Arizona at -218 on the moneyline. UCLA is the designated home team, but this is a neutral floor. Both teams are 0-0. Last season Arizona finished 36-3, scoring 86.2 points per game and allowing 69.4.

UCLA finished 24-12, scoring 77.1 and allowing 71.1. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now. Arizona lost its top three scorers. UCLA lost its top two.

UCLA's best returning player is in form. Forward Eric Dailey Jr., who averaged 11.6 points and a team-high 5.8 rebounds last season, scored 25 points on 9-of-13 shooting against Cal Baptist on October 21, making 7 of 9 threes, in a 100-53 exhibition win at Pauley Pavilion.

Guard Trent Perry, UCLA's leading returning scorer at 12.6 points per game last season on 39.2 percent shooting from three, runs the backcourt. Center Xavier Booker, who averaged 7.3 points and 1.2 blocks last season, grabbed 9 rebounds in 20 minutes against Cal Baptist. Guard Nikola Kusturica added 10 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists and 5 steals in his first exhibition.

Arizona's returning core is two players. Center Motiejus Krivas, who is 7-2, and forward Ivan Kharchenkov averaged about 10.4 points per game each last season. The power forward Arizona planned to use is not available. RJ Godfrey cannot play. His eligibility case was stayed in September and he has remained ineligible since, able to practice but not compete, and he was the intended replacement for Koa Peat at that spot.

Key Factors

Arizona's offense runs inside, by design and by habit. The Wildcats attempted 16.4 threes per game last season, the ninth-fewest in the country, and made 5.8 per game. That is fine when the paint is open.

Against Booker at the rim and Dailey on the glass, the paint is the contested part of the floor, and Arizona does not have a high-volume perimeter game to turn to when the inside shots get hard. UCLA won the rebounding by 28 against Cal Baptist. The opponent was overmatched, but the shape of the Bruins, big at every spot, is the point.

The scoring environment helps the underdog too. Arizona's games averaged 155.6 points last season and UCLA's averaged 148.2, around the posted total of 150.5. In a game played in the mid-70s per team, a 4.5-point spread is two full possessions of cushion, and UCLA has the returning scorer, Perry, and the current form, Dailey, to trade baskets late.

The honest counterpoint is Krivas and Arizona's talent. Krivas is 7-2, and if he gets Booker in foul trouble, UCLA loses the rim protection this whole case leans on, and Arizona's inside game becomes the easy game the Wildcats want. Arizona is also 2-0 in its exhibitions, and a team that went 36-3 has habits a rebuilt UCLA roster does not.

If Arizona controls the glass the way it did last season, the points go quickly. But the Wildcats have to do it with two returning rotation players, a missing power forward, and almost no three-point volume to punish a packed paint. That is a lot to ask at this number on a neutral floor.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.