Memphis Tigers vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Memphis brings a rebuilt roster and a hot exhibition backcourt into a neutral-floor opener against an Iowa State team that lost its two best scorers and a 37-game starter. The spread asks the Cyclones to win by 14 in Sioux Falls.

The Matchup

Iowa State is a 13.5-point favorite over Memphis at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls on Monday night, with a total of 152.5 and the Cyclones at -750 on the moneyline. It is a neutral floor and a season opener for both teams, on FS1. Neither team has played a game that counts, so last season is the starting point.

Iowa State finished 29-8, scoring 82.0 points per game and allowing 65.6. Memphis finished 13-19, scoring 75.2 and allowing 76.7. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now. Iowa State lost its two best players, and Memphis kept only two players from its roster.

The Memphis backcourt is the reason this spread is worth a second look. Guard Jayden Reid, who averaged 10.1 points and 5.0 assists at Northwestern last season, scored 26 points on 11-of-15 shooting at Mississippi State on October 23, with 4 assists, 3 steals and no turnovers, in a 75-58 exhibition win. Forward Tylik Weeks, who led the Sun Belt at 19.7 points per game at Southern Miss last season, had a team-high 9 rebounds in that game.

Guard Rihards Vavers, who shot 41.2 percent from three at Washington State last season, added 10 points and 5 rebounds. Memphis is thin in one spot, though. Forward Julius Thedford, one of only two returning Tigers, sat out the Mississippi State exhibition with an injury, and no report has set his status for Monday. Keep an eye on whether Thedford plays before placing a bet.

Iowa State's best returning guard is back, and that matters. Tamin Lipsey sat out the Creighton exhibition, then started at Northwestern on October 25 and finished with 14 points and 7 assists. But the Cyclones play this opener without guard Killyan Toure, who started all 37 games last season and averaged 8.6 points. Toure is out after shoulder surgery and is not expected back until mid-January at the earliest.

Key Factors

The first thing is who is gone. Forward Milan Momcilovic, who averaged 16.9 points and shot 48.7 percent from three last season, and forward Joshua Jefferson, who averaged 16.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists, carried the Iowa State team that built that 29-8 record. Neither is on this roster.

With Toure out as well, the Cyclones open with a lead guard just back on the floor and a bench that has not played a counting game together. Memphis does not need to outplay Iowa State for 40 minutes. It needs its guards to take care of the ball, the way Reid did at Mississippi State, and keep the game in the low double digits into the second half.

The second thing is the glass. Forward Corneilous Williams averaged 9.3 rebounds per game at North Alabama last season, 3.8 of them on the offensive end. Extra possessions are how a 13.5-point underdog stays attached, and Iowa State's frontcourt is also new. The scoring environment points the same way. Memphis games averaged 151.9 points last season and Iowa State games averaged 147.6, both under the posted total of 152.5. A game played in the 140s gives the favorite fewer possessions to build a margin.

The honest counterpoint is Iowa State's form and depth of athletes. The Cyclones won their exhibition at Northwestern by a wide margin, and guard Ryan Prather Jr. scored 25 points off the bench on 6-of-7 shooting from three.

If Prather shoots like that again and Lipsey runs the game the way he did at Northwestern, Iowa State can pull away late against a Memphis roster with 13 new players still learning each other. That is the game where this pick loses, and it is a real possibility. It asks a rebuilt favorite to win by 14, though, in an opener, on a neutral floor, against a backcourt that just won at an SEC arena.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.