Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Purdue Boilermakers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Purdue opens a rebuild in Las Vegas against a Gonzaga team that could not buy a three in its last exhibition. Four departed starters scored 53.2 points a game for the Boilermakers last season, and the new group has two exhibitions of evidence.

The Matchup

Gonzaga is a 4.5-point favorite over Purdue at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Monday night, in the Hall of Fame Series opener, with a total of 156.5 and Gonzaga at -198 on the moneyline. Arizona and UCLA play the second game of the doubleheader on the same floor. Both teams are 0-0.

Last season Gonzaga finished 31-4, scoring 84.3 points per game and allowing 66.2. Purdue finished 30-9, scoring 81.6 and allowing 70.5. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now. Purdue's change is the extreme one: the four starters who left accounted for 53.2 points per game last season.

What Purdue has is a new backcourt that has played well together twice. Guard C.J. Cox is the lone returning starter. He started all 39 games last season, averaged 8.5 points, and turned the ball over 12 times in 953 minutes.

In the October exhibitions, guard Gicarri Harris scored 16 points with 5 assists in 20 minutes against Ball State, and at Purdue Fort Wayne on October 22, guard Antione West Jr. scored a team-high 16 points, guard Omer Mayer added 15 points and 4 assists, and the Boilermakers won the rebounding 42-17. Forward Caden Pierce, the 2023-24 Ivy League Player of the Year at Princeton with 16.6 points and 9.2 rebounds per game that season, gives Purdue a second ballhandler in the frontcourt.

Gonzaga's best player showed up in its last exhibition. Forward Braden Huff scored 19 points with 11 rebounds at Arkansas on October 24. Guard Davis Fogle did not play in that game. Fogle is questionable to play on Monday night.

He sat out the Arkansas game with a left leg injury, held out as a precaution, and no report since has confirmed him for the opener. Keep an eye on whether Fogle plays before placing a bet. Forward Chauncey Wiggins is out. He did not dress at Arkansas and remains ineligible while he pursues eligibility in court.

Key Factors

Gonzaga's problem at Arkansas was shooting, and it was not new. The Bulldogs made 6 of 28 threes, 21.4 percent, in a 76-72 loss, after shooting 33 percent from three last season, the worst mark of the Mark Few era. Fogle is the missing piece in that story.

He made 6 of 7 threes and scored 30 in Gonzaga's intrasquad scrimmage this month. With Fogle, Gonzaga's spacing looks different. Without him, Purdue can pack the paint around Huff and make Gonzaga's guards win the game from outside, which is the one thing this Gonzaga group has not shown it can do.

Purdue's path is possession and glass. Cox protects the ball, Pierce rebounds his position, and the Fort Wayne exhibition showed a team that can win the boards by 25. Extra possessions and a slow, physical game keep a 4.5-point spread in reach for a team that is still an underdog on merit. Gonzaga allowed 66.2 points per game last season, so Purdue's new guards will not get easy looks. They need the game in the 70s, and the posted total of 156.5 says the market expects more pace than that.

The honest counterpoint is Huff and Gonzaga's size. If Huff gets center Daniel Jacobsen in foul trouble early, Purdue's thin frontcourt has no answer inside, and Gonzaga's defense can squeeze a young backcourt into the turnovers Cox usually avoids. Fogle playing changes the math too.

He is the shooter who stretches Purdue's defense, and his return would make the 4.5 look fair. That is the risk in this pick, and it is why Gonzaga is favored at all. But a favorite that cannot shoot, missing the one guard who fixes that, is a favorite to fade at this number.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.