SE Louisiana Lions vs Auburn Tigers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1
Auburn has the best player on the floor in Tahaad Pettiford, but the Tigers allowed 78.8 points a game last season, and 26.5 is a lot to cover in a season opener against a slow opponent.
The Matchup
SE Louisiana visits Auburn on Wednesday night at Neville Arena, where the Tigers are a 26.5-point favorite with a total of 151.5, on SEC Network+. Neither team has played a game yet, so the honest starting point is last season. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.
Auburn finished 22-16 last season, scoring 83.0 points a game and allowing 78.8. The Tigers could score with anyone and guarded almost no one, and that second part is why this spread is interesting. The best player on the floor is Auburn's Tahaad Pettiford, who scored 28 points with 5 three-pointers against Tennessee in the SEC tournament in March and is back to run this team. Kevin Overton, who scored 9 in that game, is back beside him.
SE Louisiana finished 9-22 last season, scoring 65.0 a game and allowing 70.5, and almost nothing carries over. Garrett Shoemaker and Cody Al-Naziat are the only players on this roster who were part of last season's team, and Shoemaker played only a few minutes in its final game. A brand-new roster on the road in an SEC arena is a scary proposition, and the market knows it. That is exactly why the number is this big.
Key Factors
Auburn's defense is the underdog's friend. A team that allowed 78.8 points a game last season does not usually win by this kind of margin in its opener, because stops are what turn a comfortable win into a blowout. SE Louisiana plays slowly and scored 65.0 a game last season, and a slow game is a short game. Fewer possessions mean fewer chances for Auburn's talent to compound, and the underdog needs the clock as much as it needs baskets.
Openers also favor the points. Auburn is breaking in a new mix around Pettiford, and first games bring missed assignments and sloppy stretches even for good teams. SE Louisiana has nothing to protect and no reason to speed Auburn up. If the Lions take care of the ball and make Auburn score against a set defense, the Tigers can spend long stretches ahead by a margin that feels safe and still sits under this spread.
The counterpoint is obvious, and it is Pettiford. If Auburn's guard takes the game over early, a roster as new as SE Louisiana's can come apart the way young teams do in loud buildings, and Auburn scored 83.0 a game last season without much trouble. The Lions have no proven scorer to answer a run, and one long drought ends the argument.
Auburn should win its opener at home, but a defense that leaked last season, a slow opponent, and a first game full of new pieces make this spread a few possessions too generous. Take SE Louisiana Lions +26.5 at -115.
Game Information
| Date | Wednesday (11/4) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 7:00 PM CT |
| How to Watch | SECN+ |
| Venue | Neville Arena, Auburn |
| Spread | Auburn Tigers -26.5 |
| Total | 151.5 |
| Moneyline | Auburn Tigers -20,000 |
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