App State Mountaineers vs Auburn Tigers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 2

App State allowed 66.1 points a game last season and has allowed 49 and 43 this season. Auburn is laying 24.5 at home off one game, against the most stubborn defensive team it will see this month.

The Matchup

App State visits Auburn on Monday night at Neville Arena, on SEC Network, with Auburn a 24.5-point favorite, a total of 146.5, and the Tigers priced at -9,000 on the moneyline against App State at +2,500. App State is 2-0. Auburn is 1-0, and between them they have played one game against a Division I opponent with a pulse: App State's opener against Merrimack.

Auburn beat Southeastern Louisiana 92-59 in its only game. Tahaad Pettiford leads the Tigers at 18.0 points and 4.0 assists a game, and Narcisse Ngoy pulled down 9.0 rebounds in the opener. App State beat Merrimack 63-49 and Christendom 108-43. Jaylen Colon leads the Mountaineers at 11.5 points and 3.5 assists a game, and Rrezon Elezaj is at 5.5 rebounds a game, numbers that tell you how balanced and unglamorous this team is.

Last season is where App State's case lives. The Mountaineers went 19-13, scoring 72.0 points a game and allowing 66.1, one of the best defensive marks a visitor will bring into an SEC arena this season. Auburn went 17-16, scoring 82.7 and allowing 79.4, talented and loose in equal measure. Neither team's numbers this season mean much yet: Auburn has played once, and App State's 108-point game came against Christendom. What has carried over, visibly, is App State's defense, which held Merrimack to 49.

Key Factors

This is a pace and possession game. App State wants to walk the ball up, guard for a full clock, and turn 40 minutes into a grind, and teams that play that way are miserable to lay 24.5 against. Auburn's offense is built for runs, but a run needs possessions, and the Mountaineers do not give many away cheaply. Last season's Auburn team allowed 79.4 a game, so the Tigers' own defense is not the kind that squeezes a patient underdog into a blowout.

The total of 146.5 sits awkwardly next to the spread. For Auburn to cover 24.5 in a game lined at 146.5, it has to win something like 86-61, which means holding a team that protects the ball to the low 60s while scoring at its ceiling. App State's balance makes that harder: no Mountaineer averages more than 11.5 points, so there is no single scorer for Auburn to erase and collapse the whole offense.

The honest counterpoint is Pettiford and the building. He is the best player in this game, Neville Arena is a genuine home-court edge, and Auburn scored 92 in its opener with Ngoy controlling the glass. If the Tigers speed App State up with pressure and the Mountaineers' role players start missing on the road, the grind can break. The bet is on the defense that has been doing this for two seasons, not the one-game version of Auburn.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.