Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs Baylor Bears Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Baylor is laying 36.5 points at home after winning its opener by 22. Arkansas-Pine Bluff just lost by 45 at Arkansas, and now has to walk into a second straight power conference gym.

The Matchup

Arkansas-Pine Bluff visits Baylor on Friday afternoon at Foster Pavilion in Waco, on ESPN+, with Baylor a 36.5-point favorite and a total of 158.5. This is one of the biggest numbers on the Friday board, and both openers explain how it got there.

Baylor finished 17-17 last season, scoring 81.7 points a game and allowing 76.4, and opened this season with an 87-65 home win over Northwestern State. Arkansas-Pine Bluff finished 13-19 last season, scoring 77.3 and allowing 81.0, and opened with a 106-61 loss at Arkansas, a 45-point beating in an SEC building. Baylor's opener was a controlled home win, and Pine Bluff's was a 45-point beating in an SEC building.

The spread says Baylor should win nearly as big as Arkansas just did. That is a strong claim. Arkansas played at home with one of the most talented rosters in the country and produced a 45-point night. Baylor is good, at home, and deep, but 36.5 asks the Bears to be almost that dominant against a team that has already seen a building like this once this week.

Key Factors

Baylor's shooting is the reason the number is this big. Brett Decker Jr. scored 17 points against Northwestern State and went 5-of-9 from three. Kayden Mingo added 17 points with 7 rebounds, and Dylan Mingo ran the game with 14 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 steals. When the Bears shoot like that, the margin builds in layers, and a road team playing its second straight game in a power conference gym feels every one of them.

Pine Bluff's case is narrower, and it starts with having been here already. Jalen Tatum scored 16 points at Arkansas in 34 minutes, going 7-of-8 at the free-throw line, and Creed Williamson scored 13 points on 5-of-6 shooting. A team that has already played a full-speed road game like that is harder to shock the second time. Baylor also allowed 76.4 points a game last season and 65 in its opener, so the Bears' defense leaves room for a road team to keep scoring into the second half and keep the margin honest.

The counterpoint is Pine Bluff's own opener, and it is ugly. The Golden Lions allowed 106 points at Arkansas, Tatum turned the ball over 6 times, and a team that loose with the ball against Baylor's pressure can watch a manageable game become a runaway in one stretch. Baylor has the depth to keep coming after the starters sit. The bet is that 36.5 is simply a lot of points between a favorite that won its opener by 22 and an underdog that has already taken its worst punch of the week.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.