Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

The total here is one of the highest on the board, and Alabama's defense gives points back almost as fast as its offense scores them. Arkansas State already won a one-point game this week.

The Matchup

Arkansas State visits No. 20 Alabama on Friday night at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, on SECN+, with Alabama a 25.5-point favorite and a total of 173.5, one of the highest numbers on Friday's board. That total tells the story of this game before anything else: everybody expects a track meet.

Both teams are 1-0 after their openers. Alabama beat Sam Houston 96-74 at home. Arkansas State beat Toledo 71-70 at home, a one-point win over a real program. Last season still frames the season numbers: Alabama went 25-10 last season, scoring 91.2 points a game and allowing 82.7, while Arkansas State went 20-12, scoring 83.0 and allowing 77.2.

Alabama's offense is a machine. Its defense, by design and by habit, gives back a healthy share of what the offense creates, which is how its games turn into exchanges instead of executions.

Arkansas State does not need to stop Alabama. It needs to keep answering, and answering is the one thing this program does well.

Key Factors

Tameron Ferguson gives Arkansas State a guard who can go get a basket when a possession breaks down. He scored 20 points on 8-of-10 shooting with 3 steals against Toledo, and Layne Taylor added 13 points with three three-pointers. Jordan Pyke chipped in 11 points and 9 rebounds.

The Red Wolves won a tight home game with balance and shot-making, and a team that has already closed out a one-point game in the final seconds does not rattle easily when the favorite makes a run. Friday is their first road game, and the composure travels with the roster.

Alabama's weakness is hiding in plain sight in its own numbers. The Crimson Tide allowed 82.7 points a game last season and gave Sam Houston 74 in the opener. Drew Fielder and London Jemison scored 15 each and Tarris Bouie added 13, the usual shared scoring load, but the Tide play so fast that the underdog gets extra possessions too. Extra possessions are oxygen for a 25.5-point underdog that can score 83 a game.

The honest counterpoint is the sheer math of Alabama at home. A team that averages in the 90s can be up 30 by the middle of the second half without playing unusually well, and Arkansas State allowed 77.2 points a game last season against a Sun Belt schedule. If Alabama's shooters get hot early and the Red Wolves have one cold stretch, this is over. The pick is a bet that Arkansas State's offense keeps punching back for 40 minutes.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.