Sam Houston Bearkats vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Alabama opens ranked 20th and lays 26.5 points in the highest-total game on the slate. Sam Houston scored 82.3 points a game last season and rebounded with anyone, and Alabama's defense allowed 82.7.

The Matchup

Alabama is a 26.5-point favorite over Sam Houston at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa on Tuesday night, with a total of 170.5, on SECN+. It is the season opener for both teams. Alabama finished 25-10 last season, scoring 91.2 points per game and allowing 82.7. Sam Houston finished 22-12, scoring 82.3 and allowing 75.1. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

Sam Houston can score with the favorite. The Bearkats put up 82.3 points a game last season, shot 36.7 percent from three and rebounded 40.7 a game, nearly matching Alabama's own glass work. The new face is Jacobe Coleman, who averaged 16.4 points and shot 40.1 percent from three at New Mexico Junior College last season.

Junior college numbers come with a discount, and everyone knows it. They still describe a guard who has carried an offense before, which is what a big underdog needs most. Enel St. Bernard shot 66.9 percent from the field and averaged 5.5 rebounds, a finisher who wastes nothing.

Alabama's offense is a volume argument. The Crimson Tide attempted 65.9 field goals and 35.3 threes a game last season, scored 91.2 points, and got 14.7 points a game from Drew Fielder. Their defense is the tax on all of it: 82.7 points allowed per game is a poor number for a ranked team, and it is why Alabama games turn into track meets where the underdog keeps scoring long after the result is decided.

Key Factors

The total is the tell. At 170.5, the market expects a shootout, and shootouts are where big underdogs live, because the underdog's offense keeps producing the points that keep the margin honest. Sam Houston's own games averaged 157.4 points last season and Alabama's averaged 173.9. A 26.5-point spread in a game played at this speed asks Alabama to dominate every segment while its own defense leaks.

Rebounding keeps Sam Houston close. Alabama's edge in most of these mismatches is second chances, but the Bearkats rebounded 40.7 a game to Alabama's 40.6. An underdog that ends defensive possessions can control the game's shape even while losing it, and shape is what a cover is.

The counterpoint is Alabama's shooting volume. Thirty-five threes a game means the Crimson Tide can score in bursts no defense schedules for, and Sam Houston's perimeter defense has not seen this many quality looks in a month of conference play.

If Alabama makes its early threes, the Bearkats will be chasing the game by halftime, and Coleman's junior college scoring may not translate against SEC length. The pick is that Alabama's defense, not Sam Houston's offense, decides whether this number is reachable, and that defense gave up points to everyone.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.