Arkansas vs Auburn Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 10

Auburn is asked to win by double digits with an offense that has scored 15 points in one recent loss and leans almost entirely on its quarterback. Arkansas drags a weak record into Jordan-Hare, but low-scoring SEC games have a way of shrinking numbers like this one.

The Matchup

Nobody in this game scares a scoreboard. Arkansas averages 19.6 points per game, the kind of offense that makes every Saturday a negotiation. KJ Jackson has thrown for 1,673 yards, and when the Razorbacks move the ball it usually runs through Chris Marshall, who has 633 receiving yards and is the one Arkansas skill player a defense must account for on every snap.

Sutton Smith leads the ground game with only 217 rushing yards, which tells you how little help Jackson gets from a conventional running attack. Auburn's offense is better, but not by enough to justify this number. The Tigers average 24.1 points per game, and the whole operation revolves around Byrum Brown, who has thrown for 1,560 yards and also leads Auburn in rushing with 484 yards. Keshaun Singleton is his main outlet at 433 receiving yards.

When one player is both the passing game and the running game, a defense can load up on him, and Arkansas gets to spend the entire afternoon doing exactly that. The Razorbacks give up 27.6 points per game, so Auburn will score. The question is whether Auburn can score enough, often enough, to build an 11-point cushion, and its own defense allowing 26.8 points per game has not been slamming doors either.

Key Factors

Recent form says this stays tight. Arkansas lost 24-17 at Tennessee, a ranked-caliber road environment, and beat Vanderbilt 31-21, so the Razorbacks have been competitive in exactly this weight class before the 34-10 loss at Missouri knocked the shine off. Auburn's form is stranger. The Tigers beat Georgia 27-24, which is a genuine result, then scored 17 in a loss at LSU and 15 in a loss to Ole Miss.

An offense that produces 15 and 17 in two of its last three is being asked to win by double digits. That is the whole argument. The honest counterpoint is Arkansas's floor. The Razorbacks allowed 34 at Missouri, their run game is thin behind Smith, and if Brown escapes the pocket plan early, Auburn can build a lead that a 19.6-points-per-game offense cannot chase.

Jordan-Hare is also a miserable place to play from behind. But covering 10.5 requires sustained separation, and neither team sustains anything. Auburn wins ugly at home far more often than it wins big, and Arkansas has spent the season losing games by margins that keep a number like this alive into the fourth quarter.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.