Missouri vs Arkansas Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Missouri is ranked No. 23 and travels to Fayetteville with questions to answer, while Arkansas comes home playing its cleanest football of the season in front of a crowd that senses an opening.

The Matchup

Missouri's last game exposed a problem Arkansas can lean on. The Tigers scored 3 points in a 31-3 loss at Ole Miss, Austin Simmons threw for 339 yards without a touchdown, and Jamal Roberts was held to 39 yards on 20 carries. Roberts has 867 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns this season, so the talent is proven, but a Missouri ground game that produces 2.0 yards per carry lets a defense ignore it and crowd Simmons on every obvious passing down.

Arkansas does not need to shut Missouri out to change this game. Arkansas needs the same friction Ole Miss created, because KJ Jackson gives the Razorbacks a steadier counter than the record suggests. Jackson completed 21 of 31 passes for 251 yards at 8.1 yards per attempt against Vanderbilt, threw no interceptions, and ran 11 times for 58 yards and a touchdown, accounting for the offense in both phases.

Missouri allows 19.6 points per game, a strong number, but that defense spent its last game watching its own offense go quiet drive after drive. If Jackson plays clean again and Arkansas stays in normal downs at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Missouri's margin for error looks much thinner than the spread suggests.

Key Factors

Missouri's season numbers still command respect, and they are the case for a road rout. The Tigers average 31.1 points per game, Simmons has thrown 14 touchdowns against 2 interceptions, and Missouri has given the ball away only 4 times all season, a clean profile that usually travels.

Arkansas, by contrast, averages 21.0 points per game and runs for just 111.6 yards per game at 3.3 yards per carry, a profile that struggles to sustain long drives against a good defense. That is the honest path to a Missouri blowout. Roberts returns to his season form, Simmons finishes drives the way he did in the 45-17 win over Florida, and Arkansas falls behind an offense it cannot chase with a thin run game.

Arkansas's case rests on place and on Jackson's form. The Razorbacks beat Vanderbilt 31-21 on the road with Jackson accounting for 309 yards of offense, a complete performance that did not rely on luck. Both teams arrive with 13 days of rest, so neither side can claim a freshness edge. The game turns on whether Missouri's stalled version or its Florida version travels to Fayetteville, and recent evidence favors the home team keeping this close.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.