Army vs Memphis Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Army has won three straight behind the most extreme run game in the country, and Memphis scores 36.1 points per game with a passing attack Army rarely sees. The game at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium will be decided by who controls the clock and who watches from the sideline.

The Matchup

Army's offense is a possession argument before it is a scoring argument. Army runs for 345.7 yards per game at 6.4 yards per carry, has scored 29 rushing touchdowns against just 3 passing touchdowns, and converts 50.0 percent of its third downs. Every long Army drive is a drive Marcus Stokes spends on the Memphis sideline.

Cale Hellums is the center of it: Hellums has run 159 times for 840 yards and 16 touchdowns this season, and Godspower Nwawuihe added 135 yards at 11.3 yards per carry with a 66-yard run in Army's 38-35 win at Tulsa. Memphis averages 36.1 points per game and Stokes threw for 320 yards and 3 touchdowns in the 41-34 win over East Carolina, so Memphis will score when Memphis has the ball.

The question is how often that happens. Army has given the ball away only 2 times all season and thrown just 1 interception, a discipline that starves a Memphis defense built on takeaways. Memphis has taken the ball away 18 times, but an offense that almost never puts the ball in danger blunts that strength before the game starts.

Key Factors

Memphis's passing efficiency is the strongest counter in this game. Memphis averages 9.6 yards per pass attempt, Stokes has thrown 21 touchdowns, and Memphis pairs that with 227.8 rushing yards per game at 5.5 yards per carry. If Memphis scores quickly on its early possessions, Army's 74.9 passing yards per game cannot chase a two-score game, and Army's whole plan depends on never facing that script.

Army has also allowed points in its recent wins, giving up 35 to Tulsa and 24 to Florida Atlantic, so Memphis does not need many possessions to reach the high 20s. Army's answer is that Army's recent form is the best in this matchup: three straight wins, including 56-24 over Florida Atlantic, and an offense that has not needed to pass because defenses have not stopped the run.

Brady Anderson gives Hellums one real outlet, with 61 receiving yards on 3 catches at Tulsa, enough to punish a defense that overcommits. Memphis had 8 days of rest to Army's 6, a small edge, but rest matters less than snap counts here. Army needs long drives and a clean sheet on turnovers, the two things Army has done all season.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.