Michigan vs Rutgers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Michigan brings the better defense to Piscataway, but Michigan also brings an offense that has scored 14, 21, and 6 points in its last three games. Rutgers can score enough to make a two-touchdown margin uncomfortable.

The Matchup

Michigan's offense is the reason this spread invites a second look. Michigan averages 20.3 points per game, with only 165.9 passing yards per game and 6 passing touchdowns all season. Michigan scored 14 points at Minnesota, 21 against Penn State, and 6 against Indiana across the last three games. Jordan Marshall ran 12 times for only 26 yards against Indiana, and JJ Buchanan caught 6 passes for 57 yards in that 13-6 loss.

Buchanan has been Michigan's most productive receiver, with 33 catches for 539 yards and 4 touchdowns, but Buchanan is working in an offense that struggles to finish drives. Rutgers attacks differently. Rutgers averages 28.7 points per game and 242.1 passing yards per game, with 16 passing touchdowns. KJ Duff has 45 catches for 774 yards and 9 touchdowns, and Duff caught 3 passes for 33 yards at Northwestern last week.

Antwan Raymond gives Rutgers a real run threat, and Raymond shapes the tension here. Michigan allows only 15.7 points per game, yet Michigan also has 13 giveaways this season. Rutgers does not need to solve Michigan all afternoon. Rutgers needs Raymond to keep Michigan honest and Duff to win enough downfield to produce two or three scoring drives.

Key Factors

Raymond's last game is the strongest piece of the Rutgers case. Raymond carried 18 times for 150 yards and a touchdown at Northwestern, averaging 8.3 yards per carry with a long run of 46 yards. Raymond has 648 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns for the season. Against a Michigan offense this limited, even a modest Rutgers lead forces Michigan to chase the game in a way Michigan is not built to do.

Michigan converts only 38.5 percent on third down and averages 3.7 yards per carry. The counterpoint is Rutgers' defense, and the counterpoint is serious. Rutgers allows 33.3 points per game, has only 8 sacks, and has given the ball away 14 times. If Michigan shortens the game, wins field position, and turns Rutgers mistakes into short fields, Michigan can cover without the offense suddenly looking good.

Rutgers quarterbacks have thrown 12 interceptions this season, which is a real risk against a Michigan defense that has taken the ball away 9 times. Rutgers has to protect the ball and let Raymond set the terms. When Raymond runs efficiently, Rutgers can score. When Rutgers chases, the interception problem becomes the whole story.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.