Auburn vs Ole Miss Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Ole Miss, No. 12 in the AP Top 25, can score in bunches at home, but Auburn brings a dual-threat quarterback and a defense that allows less than Ole Miss allows. The gap between these teams looks smaller than the line in Oxford.

The Matchup

Byrum Brown makes Auburn hard to bury. Brown has thrown for 1,365 yards and 8 touchdowns and run for 479 yards and 6 more touchdowns, so Auburn's quarterback is also Auburn's leading rusher. Brown threw for 160 yards against LSU and ran 19 times in that game, and Keshaun Singleton caught 4 passes for 64 yards. Singleton has 36 catches for 431 yards this season.

Auburn averages 25.4 points per game and converts 43.0 percent on third down, which matters against an Ole Miss defense that allows 25.3 points per game. Ole Miss, No. 12 in the AP Top 25, has the higher ceiling. Trinidad Chambliss has thrown for 1,926 yards and 16 touchdowns, and Deuce Alexander has 43 catches for 610 yards and 5 touchdowns. Alexander caught 8 passes for 87 yards at Texas last week.

Ole Miss averages 36.0 points per game and 284.9 passing yards per game. The setup is a pace question. If Chambliss gets Ole Miss into the thirties early, Auburn has to throw to keep up. If Brown keeps Auburn on schedule and Auburn's defense, which allows 24.1 points per game, gets a few stops, the home favorite has to work for separation.

Key Factors

Chambliss's last game cuts both ways for Ole Miss. Chambliss threw for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns at Texas, but Chambliss also threw 3 interceptions on 52 attempts and averaged only 4.8 yards per attempt. Ole Miss lost that game 34-27. Auburn has taken the ball away 11 times and recorded 8 interceptions, so careless throws carry a cost.

Brown's running also attacks the cleanest Ole Miss path to covering, which is building a lead and forcing Auburn into obvious passing downs. Brown has 126 carries this season, and Auburn averages 165.4 rushing yards per game at 4.3 yards per carry. The counterpoint is Ole Miss's passing volume and Alexander's consistency.

If Chambliss avoids the interceptions and Alexander keeps producing first downs, Ole Miss can stretch Auburn's defense in a way LSU did last week in a 38-17 Auburn loss. Auburn quarterbacks have thrown 7 interceptions, and Brown threw for no touchdowns against LSU. Auburn needs Brown efficient, not just busy. A Brown turnover or two in Oxford would let Ole Miss turn a competitive game into the comfortable win the line expects.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.