Arizona vs Texas Tech Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

Arizona is No. 22 in the AP Top 25 and Texas Tech is No. 13 in the AP Top 25, and both teams arrive at 6-1 in Lubbock. Arizona has won its last three by a combined margin that includes a 39-3 result, while Texas Tech is coming off a 37-24 loss at Cincinnati.

The Matchup

Noah Fifita gives Arizona the steadier quarterback play in this matchup, and the gap showed in the most recent game for each team. Fifita went 27 of 34 for 308 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions, continuing a season with 2,064 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.

Isaiah Mizell caught 8 passes for 134 yards and 1 touchdown in that game, with a long of 71, and Mizell has 493 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns this season. Arizona averages 310.9 passing yards per game at 9.1 yards per attempt and converts 54.0 percent on third down. Texas Tech asks Will Hammond to keep pace, and Hammond threw for 227 yards with no touchdowns and 1 interception in the most recent game.

Hammond has 1,561 yards with 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions this season. J'Koby Williams keeps Texas Tech balanced with 619 rushing yards, and Williams ran for 81 yards on 12 carries in the most recent game. Kenny Johnson caught 7 passes for 81 yards in that game. Texas Tech can score, averaging 35.9 points per game, but Arizona allows 16.7 points per game and has 23 sacks, so Hammond has less room for the mistakes that have followed him.

Key Factors

Arizona's defense travels because Arizona creates pressure and finishes drives on the other side of the ball. Arizona allows 16.7 points per game compared with 20.4 for Texas Tech, and Arizona has allowed that number while facing a schedule that still let the Wildcats build a plus 19.4 net scoring margin.

Texas Tech has the home field at Galaxy Stadium and a real run threat in Williams at 5.0 yards per carry for the team, so Arizona cannot sit back and wait for Hammond to throw. The counterpoint is clear. If Williams controls early downs and Hammond avoids interceptions, Texas Tech can keep Fifita off the field and turn this into a home win by a touchdown, because Texas Tech averages 189.7 rushing yards per game.

Arizona's edge is third down. At 54.0 percent compared with 38.4 percent for Texas Tech, Arizona is far more likely to extend the one drive late that decides a field goal spread. Fifita's 73.8 percent completions for the season support that, because Arizona rarely wastes a series with two straight incompletions.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.