Notre Dame vs Navy Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 9

No. 5 in the AP Top 25 Notre Dame brings a 41.1 points per game offense to a neutral site at Gillette Stadium, and Navy brings the ground game that can shorten any afternoon. The Midshipmen run for 307.7 yards per game, and that clock control is the whole tension here.

The Matchup

Navy does not try to match Notre Dame throw for throw, and that is what makes a 29.5 point spread hard to cover. Jackson Gutierrez is Navy in one player, with 869 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns for the season, and he was even sharper in the most recent game with 26 carries for 228 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Navy averages 307.7 rushing yards per game at 5.7 yards per carry, so drives that chew six and seven minutes are built into how the Midshipmen play. Notre Dame counters with real efficiency. CJ Carr has thrown for 1,639 yards with 16 touchdowns and 1 interception this season, and Notre Dame averages 41.1 points per game while allowing 13.4.

Jaden Greathouse caught 8 passes for 125 yards in the most recent game, and Nolan James Jr. added 77 rushing yards on 16 carries. Notre Dame is the better team by a wide margin, and the Irish should control the scoreboard. The question is volume. Fewer Navy possessions means fewer chances for Notre Dame to stack the quick scores a spread this large requires, especially against a Navy team converting 43.2 percent on third down.

Key Factors

Rest points one way and ball security points the other, and both matter late. Notre Dame last played on October 17, giving the Irish 13 days before October 31, while Navy played on October 24 and has 6 days. That edge should help a rested Notre Dame defense stay disciplined against the option looks. Navy has to survive its own mistakes to stay inside the number.

Navy has 10 giveaways against 3 takeaways this season, while Notre Dame has 2 giveaways against 10 takeaways. One short field in the second half can turn a comfortable Irish win into a cover, and Gutierrez has to protect the ball while carrying that rushing load. Gutierrez also gives Navy a selective shot when Notre Dame crowds the box.

He went 7 of 10 for 133 yards and 1 touchdown in the most recent game, averaging 13.3 yards per attempt, and Merrick Barlow caught 2 passes for 64 yards. Navy does not need many completions. Navy needs enough threat to keep Notre Dame honest, keep the chains moving, and keep the final margin closer to two scores than four.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.