Bellarmine Knights vs Indiana Hoosiers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Bellarmine scored 47 points at Vanderbilt on Monday. Indiana put 91 on Eastern Illinois with its leading guard shooting almost perfectly. Assembly Hall is a hard place to go looking for a first win.

The Matchup

Bellarmine visits Indiana on Thursday evening at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall in Bloomington, on Peacock, with Indiana a 26.5-point favorite and a total of 153.5. This is a buy game on paper, and the openers did nothing to argue with the paper.

Indiana finished 18-14 last season, scoring 78.2 points a game and allowing 72.2. Bellarmine finished 13-19, scoring 80.0 and allowing 81.7, a team that could score and could not stop anybody. Monday made the gap look wider, not narrower: Indiana beat Eastern Illinois 91-57 at home, and Bellarmine lost 93-47 at Vanderbilt, scoring 47 points in a game that was over early.

The question in a game like this is never who wins. It is whether the favorite keeps scoring after the game is decided, and whether the road team has enough offense to use the back door. Bellarmine's opener gives very little reason to believe in the second part.

Key Factors

Indiana's opener was efficient in a way that travels to blowouts. Markus Burton scored 19 points on 7-of-8 shooting, made all 3 of his threes, and handed out 5 assists. Bryce Lindsay added 14 points with 3 threes of his own, and Trevor Manhertz scored 11 off the bench. A favorite whose guards shoot like that does not need its big men to dominate; the points come from everywhere, and the runs stack up before the road team can settle.

Bellarmine's problems sit at both ends. No Knight scored more than 9 points at Vanderbilt, with Demarcus Surratt the team high at 9, and a team still searching for a first option cannot trade baskets in this building. The defense is the bigger worry: Bellarmine allowed 81.7 points a game last season and 93 on Monday, and Indiana just showed it will keep attacking a defense that cannot guard the first action. Foul trouble and tired legs turn a 20-point game into a 30-point game quickly here.

The counterpoint is the number itself, and it deserves respect. Covering 26.5 usually requires the favorite's bench to keep scoring late, and Bellarmine did average 80.0 points a game last season, so the shooting to steal a cover exists somewhere on that roster. If the Knights find their offense for one half, this spread is gone. The bet is that a team that scored 47 points on Monday, in its second straight road game against a power conference defense, does not find it in Assembly Hall.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.