Bellarmine Knights vs Vanderbilt Commodores Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Week 1

Vanderbilt opens ranked 24th behind Tyler Tanner, who averaged 19.5 points last season. Bellarmine shot the ball better than any team in the country last season, and both of its returning guards averaged double figures.

The Matchup

Vanderbilt is a 33.5-point favorite over Bellarmine at Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville on Monday night, with a total of 157.5, on SECN+. It is the season opener for both teams. Vanderbilt finished 27-9 last season, scoring 85.7 points per game and allowing 75.0. Bellarmine finished 13-19, scoring 80.0 and allowing 81.7. Those are last season's numbers, and both rosters look different now.

Bellarmine's identity survived its roster turnover. The Knights led the nation in field goal percentage last season at 52.1 percent, the product of an offense that hunts layups and kick-outs instead of settling for hard shots. The top two scorers are gone, but the guards who run the system are back: Kenyon Goodin averaged 11.6 points last season, Tyler Doyle averaged 10.0 points with 4.0 assists, and both step into bigger roles this season, available for the opener with no injury designations.

Vanderbilt's engine is Tyler Tanner, who passed on the NBA draft and came back after averaging 19.5 points, 5.1 assists and 2.4 steals last season, fourth in the SEC in scoring and a preseason all-conference first-team pick. The Commodores will score on almost anyone. Their open question is at the other end, where they allowed 75.0 points a game last season and now face the most shot-selective offense in the country.

Key Factors

The total tells the story of this game: 157.5 points, because both teams score and neither one defends like a lock-down unit. Vanderbilt's games averaged 160.7 points last season and Bellarmine's averaged 161.7. In a game played in the 150s, a 33.5-point margin means the favorite has to win nearly every segment decisively, and high-scoring games keep the back door open because the underdog keeps putting points on the board late.

Bellarmine's efficiency is the mechanism. A team that shot 52.1 percent from the floor does not need transition gifts or second chances to keep scoring across 40 minutes, and steady scoring is what a cover asks for in a game this open. Goodin and Doyle both handle the ball, which matters against Tanner's on-ball pressure: Bellarmine can get into its offense without burning the possession or the clock.

The counterpoint is real, and it is Bellarmine's own roster. Jack Karasinski averaged 21.7 points last season and Brian Waddell averaged 15.0, and both are gone, so the Knights' famous efficiency now runs through guards who were third and fourth options. If Vanderbilt's length turns Bellarmine's cuts into contested twos, the Knights could shoot a respectable percentage, play a decent game, and still lose by 38. That is the risk, and it is part of why the number is this big.

Every pick is published with its line before the game. Odds via consensus sportsbooks at time of writing and move constantly. Must be 21+. If gambling is a problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.