Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hamburg SV Prediction, Odds, Best Bets - Bundesliga
Hamburg SV are fifteenth and Borussia Mönchengladbach are bottom of the Bundesliga when the two meet at the Volksparkstadion on Friday night, a relegation six-pointer between a home side that leaks goals and visitors who leak even more of them on the road.
The Matchup
Hamburg SV are fifteenth at 3-0-5, and their season is a goals problem at both ends. They have scored 7 and conceded 19 in eight matches, and back-to-back 1-3 losses to Eintracht Frankfurt, the second of them at Frankfurt on November 1, showed how quickly a game gets away from them once they fall behind. The scoring is thin and shared.
Terem Moffi has 2 goals, Yussuf Poulsen has 2, and Miro Muheim has 2 goals and an assist from the left side, while Albert Gronbaek leads the side with 3 assists, so the creativity is real even when the finishing is not. Goalkeeper Daniel Heuer Fernandes has made 34 saves behind a defense that keeps him busy.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are bottom at 1-1-6, with 11 scored and 22 conceded, and their leading scorer tells the story of the season. Joe Scally, a full back, leads the side with 3 goals and an assist, Hugo Bolin has 2 goals on a team-high 18 shots, and goalkeeper Moritz Nicolas has made 36 saves.
A team whose full back is its top scorer is a team whose forwards are not finishing, and Gladbach's one win came at home. Neither club has named its side yet. Hamburg are expected to keep the back three they used at Frankfurt, with Moffi expected to lead the line, while Gladbach are expected to stay in the shape from the draw at Paderborn, with Scally expected to start on the right.
Key Factors
Gladbach's away record is the worst kind of bad for a visiting side in a six-pointer. They have scored 1.00 goal per match on their travels and conceded 3.00 per match, so they arrive at the Volksparkstadion needing to outscore a problem they have not solved all season.
Hamburg's home defending is poor in its own right at 2.00 conceded per match, which should give Gladbach chances, but the home side create the steadier supply, with Gronbaek feeding three different scorers against a defense that has already shipped 22 goals. In a game between two leaky sides, the one playing at home with the better chance creation is the one to trust.
The honest counterpoint is Hamburg's own collapse risk. They have lost their last three matches in all competitions, they concede in bunches once a game turns, and Gladbach drew 0-0 at Paderborn and won 2-0 at Karlsruhe in their last two away games in all competitions, so the visitors are not arriving without any fight at all.
If Gladbach score first and Hamburg have to chase, the home crowd has seen that film before this season and it does not end well. Hamburg need the first goal, or at least a level game deep into the second half, for their edge in creation to tell.
Hamburg SV moneyline is the pick at +148. Gladbach travel worse than any side in the division, and a bottom club that concedes this freely on the road has to be opposed at the Volksparkstadion even by a Hamburg side with problems of its own. The draw is the live risk, because Hamburg do not keep clean sheets and a level game late would suit the visitors fine. Take Hamburg SV ML at +148.
Game Information
| Date | Friday (11/6) |
|---|---|
| Start Time | 1:30 PM CT |
| Venue | Volksparkstadion, Hamburg |
| Competition | Bundesliga |
| Round | Bundesliga Matchday 9 |
| Spread | Hamburg SV 0.0 (-119) |
| Total | 3 (Over +110 · Under -123) |
| Moneyline | Hamburg SV +148 / Draw +270 / Borussia Mönchengladbach +180 |
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